Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 301734 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 134 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 135 AM MONDAY...AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING IN ALL IT MORNING RUNS THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 3 PM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO MID 40S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8 KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AS FRONT CROSSES WATERS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. SO EXPECT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED AFTER 8 PM. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID 15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL

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