Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 171923
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO SATURDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER AND THEN PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...FINALLY BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED
AS THE WEDGE CONFIGURATION CONTINUES TO RELAX UNDER THE SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF WEST PATTERN ALOFT. THE BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONE COMPLICATION.
THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...IS SHOWING
A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HESITANT TO GO ALL IN WITH THIS FEATURE AS THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN NUMEROUS FALSE ALARMS VIA SIMILAR
FEATURES. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS WITH THIS ONE HOWEVER
AND ACTIVITY TO THE WEST GIVES IT MORE CREDENCE. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER INLAND WILL
CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE ON SAT WILL BE
DEEPEST NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD...HIGHEST INLAND. WILL CARRY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND SAT
MORNING... LIKELY...WITH CHANCE NEARER TO THE COAST. THE BUILDING
RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND THUS
IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHOW POPS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY BY EVE. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING SAT
AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE EVE. AS
THE TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...A MORE POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT SAT...MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN PIECES ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N...WILL STALL TO OUR N ON
SUN. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. AS A DEEP MOISTURE FEED RESUMES ON STRENGTHENING S TO SW
FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR SUN. POPS WILL TREND LOWER DURING SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE START OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
THE BUSIEST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION
BEING SUPPLIED SOME DEEPER LIFT BY SHORTWAVE-LADEN CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW AROUND LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT AND ITS
ASSOC MOISTURE APPEAR TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO RAPID DROP IN RAIN CHANCES THOUGH THE LINGERING UPPER
ENERGY MAKES A 100 PERCENT DRY FORECAST TOUGH TO PROMISE. THE CAA
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE TEMPERED SO TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO WILL BE MINIMAL. THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES BEYOND
THE MONDAY NIGHT DRYING BUT A PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY CALL FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH
INLAND BY TAF TIME...WITH ONLY A VCSH MENTION ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND LOOK FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...THEN
DIMINISHING DIURNALLY. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...A
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEPT VISIBILITY MVFR IN SHOWERS...BUT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR...AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CREEPING UP.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE RESIDUAL HIGHER
SEAS THAT HAVE WARRANTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE FALLEN
ENOUGH TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS WITH
THE LATEST PACKAGE. WILL ISSUE A SCEC FOR THE SAME WATERS UNTIL 6
PM.

I HAVE ALSO ISSUED A VERY BRIEF MWS TO ADDRESS LOW WATER LEVELS AT
BEACH. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET UNDER A VERY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY SUN AND THEN SE AND S BY
SUN EVE AND FINALLY SW SUN NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15
KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO AROUND 20 KT LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT SAT INTO SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT LATER SUN
WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO INITIALIZE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN A MODERATELY STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW
REGIME. WIND WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS APPEAR
TO MAKE CRITERIA (6FT). A PRETTY SHARP VEER IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS HOWEVER AS THE POST-FRONTAL
GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL. TUESDAY`S DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL FIND THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/DL


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