Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 190252 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1052 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 945 PM SATURDAY...THE DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE FA AND IS NOW BASICALLY WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...AND IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. WILL DROP POPS TO ISOLATED IN COVERAGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA BUT ONLY FOR TEMPORARILY THIS EVENING UP TO A FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH AND POSSIBLY BACKDOORING THE FA OVERNIGHT BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING...AND A FEW LEFTOVER SHALLOW MESOSCALE SFC BOUNDARIES PRESENT. WILL NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE PCPN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF SUNDAY THRU DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR POPS TO RAMP BACK UP ACROSS THE ILM CWA FROM SW TO NE...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OR POSSIBLY LIKELY ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS BY SUNRISE SUN. INCREASING MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM A SERIES OF S/W MID-LEVEL TROFS...PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE WITH 00Z SUNDAY NEARBY SOUNDINGS AND MODEL PROGS INDICATING PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...AND AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC BASED BOUNDARIES WILL LIE ACROSS THE FA ALLOWING FOR SFC BASED CONVERGENCE TO AID MORE ORGANIZED PCPN DEVELOPMENT TO COMPLEMENT THE MID-LEVEL SUPPORT. LATEST MIN TEMPS FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOOKING AOK AND SEE NO REASON TO FURTHER TWEAK FROM EARLIER CHANGES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY APPEARS THE MORE OPTIMUM SET-UP FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH MORE ROBUST KINEMATIC FIELDS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL HEATING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY SUNDAY MAY IMPEDE CONVECTION INITIATION/GROWTH. SUNDAY MEANWHILE OFFERS THE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS AS COLUMN MOISTURE SURGES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS SURGE TO 1.8". SEVERAL MCV PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SWEPT NE IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT IR ANIMATIONS SHOW COLD TOPS INDEED FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WPC QPF DEPICTIONS SHOW .75-1 INCH BASIN AVERAGES SUNDAY...AND WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE GREATER AMOUNTS. MONDAY LESS BASIN QPF BUT MORE POWERFUL STORMS IN THE CARDS WITH MAXIMUMS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE AIDING INSOLATION AND CELL POPS. SPC PAINTS SLIGHT RISK FOR BOTH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BALMY PERIOD OVERALL AND BEST GUESS ON FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW SLATED AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE LOOKING UPPER PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE COLUMN DRY AND LEAD TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS LOCALLY. LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRY AS WELL THROUGH SOME TIME WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOON THEREAFTER THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND SOME MOISTENING RETURN FLOW ENSUES. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS CALLING FOR RAIN AS SOON AS THURSDAY BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNSLOPE FLOW STILL FEEL THAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS THE BETTER DAY TO INTRODUCE SOME RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THOUGH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY SOME LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY PAIRED WITH MID LEVEL VORT APPROACHING TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS INTERMITTENT LOW CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR LATE OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS...AS WELL AS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AS SEEN FROM LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING ANY TAF SITES. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT RULE OUT MEANDERING LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS IN THE MORNING TO BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR IS ANTICIPATED AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MOVE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE WINDS FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. WINDS TO BECOME NE-E THRUOUT...AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT...WITH THE HIER WIND SPEEDS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. THIS A RESULT OF THE BACKDOOR FRONTS POSITIONING WITH ENOUGH TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG AS RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE NE STATES SFC HIGH. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4 FOOTERS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND NORTHWARD. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 9 SECONDS IN RESPONSE TO THE 2 TO 3 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL. HAVE REDUCED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST 88D TRENDS. SHOULD SEE POPS INCREASE DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HRS. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY MARINE REGIME ON TAP THIS PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND WORSENS LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVE GROWTH HOWEVER MAY BE LIMITED SINCE SE-S WIND FLOW HAS LIMITED STAYING TIME BEFORE WINDS GO SW EARLY ON MONDAY. HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FEET SUNDAY FOR NOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SET TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OFFSHORE/NORTHWESTERLY POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW REGIME ON TUESDAY WILL GROW LIGHTER LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT GRADIENT WHEREIN WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS AND VEER IN DIRECTION FOR AN EXTENDED TIME UNTIL FINALLY SETTLING ON SOUTHERLY BY WED EVE. SUCH LIGHT WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF SWELL ENERGY OUGHT TO BE GOOD FOR MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A ONE CATEGORY RISE IN WINDS AND A WAVES FORECAST RISING TO JUST THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL

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