Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 011029 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 628 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT AND QUIET SPRING DAY ASIDE FROM POLLEN STORMS EJECTING FROM LOCAL PINES. UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES AND TENNESSEE VLY WILL SEND OCCASIONAL CIRRUS OVERHEAD OF NE SC AND SE NC THIS MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 60S OVER INTERIOR SE NC TO THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS INLAND NE SC. NNE WIND FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND COOLISH NEAR SHORE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAP BEACHES AT MID 60S. CLEAR AND COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOW SETTLING DEEP IN THE 40S MOST LOCALITIES...UPPER 40S BEACHES AND VERY SOUTHERN NE SC. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SOME VERY NICE EARLY-SPRING WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COMBINES WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO PRODUCE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED JUST OFF THE NC COAST WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL BE IMPEDED IN ITS LONGITUDINAL GAIN THANKS TO INCREASING LONGWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...AND THUS MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THIS BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR AFTER THE SHORT TERM. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...WARM ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH THE RAISED THICKNESSES WILL PRODUCE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH JUST A SCHC OF SHOWERS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE MID 70S...WITH WIDESPREAD 80S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM AROUND 60 BOTH NIGHTS...SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT...AS WARM SW WINDS PERSIST. WHILE THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE...SHOWER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY. SOME TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BEST FORCING BOTH AT JET LEVEL AND WITHIN ANY PVA REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON TOTAL COLUMN SATURATION. LATEST SREF PLUMES SUGGEST VERY LITTLE QPF BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL LOWER POP JUST SLIGHTLY BUT MAINTAIN CHC FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST POP WILL BE IN THE NW ZONES. TSTMS APPEAR UNLIKELY...AND EVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH 8AM SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATE MORNING...WITH RAPID DRYING OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH QPF SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE LOWER QPF/LOWER POP GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE BASED OFF LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND MARGINAL COLUMN SATURATION. WILL WALK POP BACK DOWNWARD A BIT SATURDAY MORNING BUT MAINTAIN LOW-CHC FOR THE DAY. THEREAFTER...A RETURN TO SEASONABLE CAROLINA SPRING WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND POTENTIAL INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. WHILE SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE A BIT BELOW CLIMO...A WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING AFTN SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA AS EVIDENCED BY SATELLITE. A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE TRANSITING THE REGION...COURTESY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. POST FRONTAL MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...CAUTIONARY HEADLINE IN PLACE UNTIL 6 AM FOR BLUSTERY WSW WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS AWAY FROM THE INSHORE WATERS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NNE LATER THIS MORNING AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES NNW TO SSE ACROSS THE 0-20NM WATERS. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 2-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON HIGHEST OFFSHORE WILL SETTLE TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT. WITH DIMINISHING AND WEAKEN WINDS TO ENE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD THURSDAY MORNING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW...AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PINCH AND WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SW THURSDAY...AND THEN INCREASE IN SPEED QUICKLY DURING FRIDAY. WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE E/SE...BUT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SW AND THEN CLIMB TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INCREASING SW WINDS...RISING FROM 2-4 FT THURSDAY...TO 4-7 FT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD DUE TO 20-25 KT SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTN...TURNING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE NW AND THEN NE WITH DECREASING SPEEDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP ON THE DECREASING WINDS AND BECOME 2- 4 FT BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THE WATERS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A VERY WEAK GRADIENT WHICH KEEPS WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH SEAS ONLY 1-2 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43 MARINE...MJC/JDW

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