Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 240817 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 417 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TODAY. A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH...WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT BRINGS A WET WEEKEND TO THE AREA. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY MOVING UP THE COAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...FRISKY NORTH WINDS BUFFETING THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BARGE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR APRIL 24TH. WINDS TO MARKEDLY DIMINISH INTO AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA AND OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR THIS EVENING. SHREDS OF CIRRUS ARCING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE UPSTREAM WILL STEER INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS BY DEEP NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP. ENCROACHING AND THICKENING CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE GUIDED BY A BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLIES...WILL BRING AN ONSET OF PRECIPITATION JUST AFTER DAYBREAK FOR OUR ZONES WEST OF I-95. THIS REGIME WILL INDUCE AN ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE TREND LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER 7-9Z/3-5AM AS CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS TEAM. MINIMUMS REALIZED WELL BEFORE FIRST LIGHT...48-54 DEG FROM OUR SE NC INTERIOR TO THE COASTAL ZONES RESPECTIVELY...50-52 SC INTERIOR LOCALITIES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RAINY DAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE OLD COLD FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT AND AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING MID-MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING IN SATURDAY EVENING. A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TRANSECTING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY WITH CLEARING EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SUNDAY. A DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL DROP A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY OFF SHORE. MODELS DIFFER IN TERMS OF EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO W-NW ON BACK END OF LOW AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A DRY SLOT SUN MORNING WITH SW FLOW AND BROADER LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW A FASTER SOLUTION WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF SHORE EARLY SUNDAY LEAVING SW FLOW AND BREAK IN PCP FOR PART OF SUNDAY AND THEN SHORTWAVE PUSHES COLD FRONT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCP AGAIN. EITHER WAY PART OF SUNDAY MAY BE DRIER AND LESS CLOUDY. THE CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHICH PART. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO TUES. SHOULD PULL OFF ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR TUES ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST AND GULF COAST LOW MAY MAKE ENOUGH EASTWARD PROGRESS TO PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP AS EARLY AS LATE TUES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS DEEP TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS ENCROACHING CIRRUS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 7-12 KT AND CLEAR MORNING SKIES. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY WITH FEW TO SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ALONG WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO FRI MORNING... UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT TO 3 TO 5 FT WITH 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURDDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SEAS DURING THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS. LOCAL WATERS SHOULD LIE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SOUTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MOVING OFF SHORE LEAVING SW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NW AND NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY. THE S-SW PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS UP CLOSER TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY SUN AFTN. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT THROUGH MONDAY. COULD SEE A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS UP THROUGH SUN NIGHT BUT OVERALL EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH DIMINISHING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE EAST BY TUES NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST FROM THE GULF COAST. EXPECT SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY MONDAY MORNING AND REMAINING BENIGN THROUGH TUES...WITH A SLIGHT ON SHORE PUSH BY TUES NIGHT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MJC

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