Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231938 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 338 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING A WET WEEKEND. DRY AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY MOVING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW COLD FRONT IS TEMPORARILY HUNG UP OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES AS A PERTURBATION MOVES WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FRONT. NO WEATHER AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO EXPECT NO PRACTICAL EFFECTS FROM ITS TARDINESS OTHER THAN A DELAY IN THE COLD ADVECTIVE SURGE AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE UNITED IN PUSHING FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S. LOCAL TEMPERATURE SCHEMES PREDICT THAT WE WILL REACH FORECAST MAXIMUMS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S UP NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S DOWN SOUTH. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF FROPA. P/W VALUES WILL PLUNGE TO UNDER A QUARTER INCH OVERNIGHT. PLUS...A SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. CLEAR SKIES...A DRY COLUMN AND COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S MOST PLACES. THIS IS FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 70 INLAND AND THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RAINY DAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE OLD COLD FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT AND AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING MID-MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING IN SATURDAY EVENING. A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TRANSECTING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY WITH CLEARING EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SUNDAY. A DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL DROP A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY OFF SHORE. MODELS DIFFER IN TERMS OF EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO W-NW ON BACK END OF LOW AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A DRY SLOT SUN MORNING WITH SW FLOW AND BROADER LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW A FASTER SOLUTION WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF SHORE EARLY SUNDAY LEAVING SW FLOW AND BREAK IN PCP FOR PART OF SUNDAY AND THEN SHORTWAVE PUSHES COLD FRONT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCP AGAIN. EITHER WAY PART OF SUNDAY MAY BE DRIER AND LESS CLOUDY. THE CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHICH PART. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO TUES. SHOULD PULL OFF ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR TUES ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST AND GULF COAST LOW MAY MAKE ENOUGH EASTWARD PROGRESS TO PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP AS EARLY AS LATE TUES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS DEEP TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SCATTERED CU THAT MAY MAKE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT FOG EVEN WITH THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FRIDAY...A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ALONG WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS OVER OUR SOUTHERN-MOST ZONE. THE FRONT WILL DROP WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS A COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS COLD SURGE WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS...MAINLY OVER OUR NC WATERS...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KTS BY SUNRISE AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE FURTHER SOUTH. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...AS THE COLD AIR SURGES WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL START OUT AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW SEA HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR FROM 10 UTC FRIDAY UNTIL 18 UTC. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SEAS. BY SUNDAY EVENING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS. LOCAL WATERS SHOULD LIE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SOUTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MOVING OFF SHORE LEAVING SW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NW AND NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY. THE S-SW PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS UP CLOSER TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY SUN AFTN. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT THROUGH MONDAY. COULD SEE A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS UP THROUGH SUN NIGHT BUT OVERALL EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH DIMINISHING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE EAST BY TUES NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST FROM THE GULF COAST. EXPECT SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY MONDAY MORNING AND REMAINING BENIGN THROUGH TUES...WITH A SLIGHT ON SHORE PUSH BY TUES NIGHT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250- 252. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...HAWKINS LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL

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