Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 192222 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 622 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 555 PM SUNDAY...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 82 THRU 11 PM REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM SC CWA...PLUS ROBESON COUNTY OF THE ILM NC CWA. BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA AT THE MOMENT. POPS HAVE BEEN RE-ADJUSTED THRUOUT THIS EVENING TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT OF THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS LINE AS IT TRAVERSES THE ILM CWA. AT THIS POINT...THE CUMULATIVE THINKING IS THAT THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BY THE TIME IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE ILM NC COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE A WATCH IS WAS NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS........................................................ AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...AS LIGHT STRATIFORM RAINFALL PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE INTO NE SC 6 PM - 7 PM...AND INTO SE NC IN THE MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING. THIS IS APT TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SATELLITE DERIVED SENSORS OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF 46MM/1.81 INCH PWATS MOVING INTO THE AREA THAT WILL HELP FUEL THE CONVECTION. SEVERAL ISOLATED OR DISCREET CELLS MAY ALSO FIRE AHEAD OF THE ORGANIZED RAIN AREA AFTER THE STRATIFORM RAIN HAS CLEARED. SEVERAL RECENT NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWS THE BULK OF RAINFALL MOVING NE OF SE NC AFTER 5Z/1AM. THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS FEATURE IF HELD INTACT WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL TONIGHT. MINIMUMS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL MUCH BELOW THE MIDDLE 60S EVEN IN RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE CWA WILL BE IN A RATHER WARM AND BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...IN BETWEEN A DEPARTING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT MOVES STEADILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE JUST ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY 0000 UTC TUESDAY. SEVERE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR AN EVENT WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LACK OF ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT. THE MET HAS SIX HOUR POPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE 18-00 UTC TIME FRAME IN LBT AND ILM. THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVE LINE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS AND FINE TUNE FOR THE TIMING FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AREA CITING THE UNCERTAINTY. BEYOND THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A NICE TUESDAY AND PEACEFUL WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. PAIR THIS WITH ZONAL MID FLOW AND THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A SMALL RISE IN POPS ON THURSDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MIDLEVEL DOWNSLOPING PREVENTING DEEP MOISTURE. THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION POSSIBLY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF LOW END POPS. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES MAY MATERIALIZE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH BUT SOME WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES WORK TO PROVIDE LIFT ATOP SOME LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...SOME CONVECTION IS TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR ILM...OTHERWISE THE COASTAL TERMINALS MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH ACTION INITIALLY. MAINLY A EAST SOUTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING...THE HRRR IS STAYING FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN AN ORGANIZED LINE OF OF CONVECTION TO THE INLAND TERMINALS AROUND 23Z. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THIS MODEL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT IFR CEILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG. MONDAY...IMPROVING CEILINGS AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 555 PM SUNDAY...TOR WATCH 82 AFFECTS THE ILM SC WATERS THRU 11 PM. THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL ACT TO WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT REACHES AND MOVES ACROSS ALL WATERS DURING THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING THAT AFFECT THE ILM SC WATERS COULD PRODUCE SMW CRITERIA BRIEF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OR WATERSPOUTS. OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE MWS CRITERIA WINDS AND LIGHTNING. PREVIOUS........................................................ AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...SEAS SLOWLY ON THE RISE IN THE MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL TSTMS ARRIVING FROM THE SW TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...AND SEVERAL SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT WITH CLOUD TO SEA LIGHTNING POSING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD. WINDS WILL VEER TO S AND SW OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT WAVE GROWTH AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT PLANNED ALTHOUGH AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE NEEDED. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS INITIALLY WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY AS A FRONT MOVES CLOSER FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MODEST WESTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS IN ITS WAKE. SMOOTH SAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY BRINGS NEARLY MINIMAL WIND AND SEAS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS THOUGH LIGHT WILL VEER CONSIDERABLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES UNTIL A S TO SW FLOW BECOMES PREDOMINANT LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. MORE VEERING IS SLATED FOR THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND VERY SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. WITH THIS FRONT STALLING NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MJC/SHK/DL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.