Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251804 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 204 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...SEVERE THREAT HAS BECOME REMOTE FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH A SHIELD OF LIGHT AND COOL STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND OUT TO SEA. AT THE SURFACE A DIFFUSE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT IS WAVERING ABOUT WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG GUIDANCE THE GENERAL TREND IS TOWARDS WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED CONVECTION AND SPARSER COVERAGE. NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT POPS. CONSIDERING OTHER GUIDANCE ON HAND AND GENERAL UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BUFKIT AND OTHER DATA SHOW BETTER INSTABILITY SHOWING UP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SO MAKING CHARACTER OF PRECIP MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL TODAY IN DEPICTING COVERAGE AND TRENDS SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM. THIS MODEL HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A MORE MODERATE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WARM FROPA WILL KEEP TEMPS OVERNIGHT ON THE MODERATE SIDE...IN VARIOUS SHADES OF THE 60S. THIS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAYS DAYTIME READINGS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY BISECTING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING OFF INTO THE OFF SHORE WATERS WITH A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ABOVE THE SURFACE. WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SFC WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MORE STABLE COOLER AIR WILL BE PRESENT. TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR PRESENT AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA CLOUDIER WHILE MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WILL SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOKING AT MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDING DATA...SHALLOW MOISTURE LOCKED IN EARLY SUNDAY SHOULD BREAK UP AS MID CLOUDS MOVE IN. TRICKY FORECAST IN TERMS OF CLOUDS AND TEMPS AS FRONT SHOULD BISECT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARMER AIR AND MORE SUNSHINE TO THE SOUTH AND CLOUDIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO GET PUSHED SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN PUSHING COLD FRONT SOUTH. LATEST MODELS KEEP BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. EXPECT BEST CHC OF PCP AS FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PCP WATER VALUES ONLY REACHING JUST OVER AN INCH ALONG BOUNDARY BY SUN EVE AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. CAN NOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE HEAVIER SHOWER CLOSER TO THE SHORE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE COMBINES WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 80S SOUTH OF FRONT AND REMAIN CLOSER TO 70 NORTH OF THE FRONT. GFS REMAINS SLOWER TO DROP FRONT SOUTH AND THEREFORE IS MORE OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY WHILE THE NAM KEEPS CLOUDS AND BRINGS COOLER AIR SOUTH QUICKER LEAVING COOLER TEMPS OVER MUCH OF AREA EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION. ONCE FRONT DROPS SOUTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOLER AIR TO ADVECT IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 850 TEMPS DROP FROM 14C SUN MORNING DOWN TO 3 C BY MON NIGHT AS HEIGHTS LOWER AS DEEP TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. EXPECT TEMPS CLOSER TO 70 ON MONDAY AS SUNSHINE TRIES TO OFFSET THE CAA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...A DEEP N-NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON. BY TUES NIGHT INTO WED A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SPREADING CLOUDS AND PCP NORTH. BEST CHC OF PCP SHOULD COME WED IN INCREASED LIFT AND MOISTURE. THIS LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST ON THURS WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND PCP UNTIL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...LEAVING SUNNY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMER AND MOISTER AIR MASS RETURNING ON THURS AS AN ON SHORE FLOW MAY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS LOW MOVES SOUTH OF AREA. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...LIGHT RAIN HAS SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE PRECIP IS STRATIFORM WITH NO CONVECTION IN THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN BOUNDARIES...WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIPITATION INDUCED CEILINGS LOWER. TONIGHT...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END... WITH LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AND PRECIP FOR SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY ON TOP OF US. SHOULD SEE A GOOD WESTERLY WIND TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SW TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL STAY IN THE GENERAL 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH 2 TO 4 FT OF SEAS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. IF SO...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...FRONT WILL BE BISECTING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. SW WINDS ON SOUTH SIDE OF FRONT WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NW AND NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATER IN THE DAY. THE LATEST WNA KEEPS SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH PEAK IN SEAS SUN AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. COULD SEE A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS UP THROUGH SUN NIGHT BUT OVERALL EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY....LEAVING SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT. WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE IN N-NW WINDS MON NIGHT WITH A MINOR SPIKE IN SEAS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY... NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE EAST BY TUES NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST FROM THE GULF COAST. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH TUES...WITH A SLIGHT ON SHORE PUSH BY TUES NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AROUND TO THE SE-S ON WED AS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST POSSIBLY PASSING DIRECTLY ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL RISE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE WED IN INCREASED ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY PUSH AS LOW MOVES BY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...REK/DL MARINE...REK/MJC/RGZ

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