Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 272255 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 655 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET WITH 1 EXCEPTION...AND THAT IS TONIGHTS SKY CONDITIONS. LATEST VISIBLE AND 11-3.9 IR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE THE CI/CS IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND OPAQUE AS WELL AS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. USING THESE TRENDS AND THE LATEST 18Z VARIOUS MODEL RUNS...HAVE BECOME MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH MAINLY THE EVENING CLOUD SITUATION. THE SC/CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER THE DAYS INSOLATION CEASES BUT THE MAINLY OPAQUE AND THIN CI/CS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. WILL USE THE PHRASEOLOGY OF PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR ALL LOCATIONS. PREVIOUS........................................................ AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... WHAT FEW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET AS HEATING ABATES AND MIXING BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND LESS VIGOROUS. THIS LEAVES A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG HOWEVER AS CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION COMPLIMENTS OF HIGH WELL TO OUR NORTH TO EVENTUALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER THAN EXPECTED LOW TEMPS. SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS MAY IMPINGE UPON SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS WEAKENING MCS CROSSES NORTHEAST GOMEX AND ANOTHER UPPER JET TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE ONE CURRENTLY EXITING TO OUR EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY GET DISPLACED AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE GULF COAST. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END UP A NICE DAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW TO NE. THIS CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND ONCE CLOUDS DEVELOP THEY WILL SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED PRECIP ONSET...LIKELY DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE NC COUNTIES WILL STAY DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY WET DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE 290 AND 295 K SURFACES...CAUSING A FULL SATURATED COLUMN AND PERIODS OF RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF COAST AND OFF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WHILE LIFTING NE THROUGH WED NIGHT. GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL HELP THIS LOW STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST...AND WILL LIKELY TRACK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS IT GETS PULLED NORTH BY A DEEP MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE OH VLY. PERIODS OF MDT TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WINDS WITHIN THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL RISE TO AROUND 70 AS COLD ADVECTION KEEPS HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR...AS CLOUDS AND RAIN LIMIT WARMING EVEN AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD ABOVE NORMAL MID/UPR 50S...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHTS MINS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...POTENT AND DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OFF CAPE HATTERAS INITIALLY AND ACCELERATE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT OF POPS FROM HIGH CHANCE TO CHANCE THURSDAY AS THE HEAVY AND ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE ENDED. SAME GRADIENT FOR OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH LOWER POPS AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS. WEATHER STILL LOOKS NICE AND QUIET BEYOND THIS AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AVIATION-WISE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL NOT BE A FACTOR...PERHAPS SOME HIGH BASED CU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO DRY MOISTURE PROFILES. TUESDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW. VFR SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...MAIN WIND AND SEAS FORECAST STILL AOK. WITH THE APPROACH AND IMMEDIATE PASSAGE OF A DECENT MID LEVEL S/W TROF OVERNIGHT...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND A SEMI-TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL YIELD NW-NNW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR ALL WATERS. THE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE FAR AND IN BETWEEN...AND RESERVED FOR THE WARMER SST JUST BEYOND THE 20 NM MARK FROM THE COAST. THE MAINLY OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT...WITH 5 FOOTERS AT AND JUST BEYOND 20 NM OUT. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RUN 4.5 TO 5.5 SECONDS. PREVIOUS.................................................... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY THIS IS CREATING A MINOR GRADIENT. HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL EXTEND A WEAK RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND THE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE TO THE TUNE OF A CATEGORY WORTH OF WINDS. LATEST RUN OF LOCALLY RUN SWAN KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 4 FT. WHILE A STRAY GUST OF 25KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUSTAINED WIND AND SEAS STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCEC THRESHOLDS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT A LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL CREATE DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY WILL CREATE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS MOST OF THE DAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF GA COAST BEFORE LIFTING NE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PINCHES THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY TO 20-25 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND THEN TURNING TO THE NW BEHIND THE LOW LATE. SEAS ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...BUT THEN INCREASE LATE AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WINDS RAMP UP NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL RISE TO 4-6 FT ON THE STRONGEST EAST WINDS...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED DURING WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SEAS FALL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LOW. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SPEEDS TACK ON A COUPLE OF KNOTS AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THESE SPEEDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. SPEEDS DROP OFF A BIT BY SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FEET THURSDAY DROPPING OFF SOMEWHAT FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHER VALUES CONFINED TO THE OUTERMOST WATERS WITH THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR

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