Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 061925 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 325 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A LARGE AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST MAY BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IN TIME MAY DEVELOP TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. ITS VERY SLOW MOVEMENT MAY BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AND ITS PERSISTENCE MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLOODING. OTHERWISE...WE ARE EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS WITH DETERIORATING MARINE AND SURF ZONE CONDITIONS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE AND LONG RANGE RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INUNDATING THE WATERS FROM ROUGHLY THE CAPE FEAR AREA SOUTH TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE AREA SHIFTING NORTH AND WESTWARD SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AREAS. I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR ALL AREAS AS EVEN THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN WEST OF I-95. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND OVERCAST SKIES. NHC HAS CANCELLED A RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THEY CONTINUE TO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND A NEW TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A LARGE SWATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS HAS BEEN RELUCTANT TO BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED TODAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR AND MAY SEND A PLANE INTO THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY TO BETTER EVALUATE ITS STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A VERY SLOW EVOLUTION AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE/ EXPAND FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING AND PERHAPS SOME FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN WILL FALL. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OFFSHORE. IF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS ABLE TO DRIFT OR REDEVELOP WESTWARD AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN A POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE PRONE TO THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOW EXPECTED ON FRI...UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH AND FROM THE NE. THE SURF ZONE WILL LIKELY BECOME DANGEROUS WITH BUILDING BREAKERS...ROUGH SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION BY FRI.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SYSTEM STILL SLOW TO ORGANIZE TODAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SO SLOW IN FACT THAT THE RECON HAS BEEN POSTPONED. UNTIL THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO CONGEAL (AT WHICH TIME AIRCRAFT RECON WILL BECOME LIKELY) ITS STILL VERY TOUGH TO ASCERTAIN HOW THINGS WILL PAN OUT. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM THE SOUTHERN CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING IN FAVOR OF THE NORTHERN CENTER ROUGHLY EAST OF JACKSONVILLE, FL. THE FORMER IS A WEAK REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW WHILE THE LATTER IS THE MORE TYPICAL FRONTAL LOW. MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL LOW REMAINS DOMINANT AND THAT THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE WEAKENS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THIS CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE FLORIDA STATE CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS THAT EVENTUALLY INDICATE A WEAKLY WARM CORE SYMMETRIC SYSTEM. SSTS ARE MARGINAL TO SAY THE LEAST SO A HYBRID SYSTEM APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN PURELY TROPICAL BUT IN THE END NHC WILL HAVE THAT CALL. LOCALLY THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE GOING UP MORE NOTABLY THAN THE CHANCE FOR ANY MEMORABLE WINDS. ASSUMING AT LEAST SOME WARM RAIN PROCESSES THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM (IT WILL BE A VERY SLOW MOVER AND MAY EVEN STALL, LOOP, OR RETROGRADE) WE COULD SEE ANYTHING FROM A BENEFICIALLY VERY WET WEEKEND TO SOME ARRANT FLOODING ISSUES. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT COMPLICATES THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS THE SEEMING LIKELIHOOD OF A HYBRID SYSTEM. THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION WILL NOT BE VERY SYMMETRICAL ABOUT THE CIRCULATION. RATHER, THERE SHOULD BE A FOCUSED CHANNEL OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHERE A FAIRLY LOCALIZED BULLSEYE OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS FOCUSED. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBILITY OF A STALLED OUT SYSTEM THE POP FORECAST WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD CONCEIVABLY LINGER INTO TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AT WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. LOWERING HIGH LEVEL CIGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE A MOIST E-ENE ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW THIS AFTERNOON ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE INLAND TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE AS RAIN OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS. SOME EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE SPEED AND DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ANY RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE AHEAD OF IT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN/MVFR. TEMPO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE COASTAL TERMINALS. BECOMING VFR/SHOWERS SUNDAY. VFR ISOLATED SHOWERS MON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN/MVFR. TEMPO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE COASTAL TERMINALS. BECOMING VFR SUNDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MOVES NORTHWARD. I HAVE WINDS INCREASING FROM THE CURRENT 10-15...WHICH THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS SHOW ARE ON THE VERY HIGH END TO A RESPECTABLE 20-25 KNOTS BY EARLY THURSDAY. I HAVE INCREASED SEAS AS WELL PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS WHICH ARE NOW JUST UNDER FIVE FEET AT 41013 AND ALMOST THREE FOUR FEET AT 41110. I HAVE ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 6 PM. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS WILL BE FLYING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THESE FLAGS MAY BE REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING DURING/BY THURSDAY. IN EITHER CASE...THE SLOW EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EXPANSIVE CONVECTION WILL CHURN UP SEAS AND WE ARE EXPECTING SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 6 TO 10 FT...PERHAPS PEAKING THU NIGHT AND FRI. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THE DIRECTION WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM THE NE AND E THU AND THU NIGHT AND E OR SE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WE WILL HAVE ADVISORIES UP ON SATURDAY IF NOT TROPICAL WARNINGS FROM NHC. THE POSSIBLE SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO SAY AT WHAT SPEED CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND AT WHAT TIME SUCH HEADLINES CAN BE STEPPED DOWN. A STALLING OF THE STORM COULD ALSO MEAN THAT THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS OFF. IN THE END UNTIL THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO CONGEAL INTO A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (TOMORROW OR FRIDAY) THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH AT ALL AT THIS TIME.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK/MRR

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