Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251047 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 642 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 638 AM SATURDAY...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO SPEED UP SLIGHTLY THE -RA CANOPY PROGRESSING EASTWARD...AS SEVERAL LOCALS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE ALREADY SEEING THE PITTER-PATTER OF RAIN DROPS. NO CHANGES HOWEVER IN THE OVERALL FORECAST TODAY. THE STORM COMPLEX APPROACHING GEORGIA HAS LIKELY REACHED POST-PEAK IN TERMS OF SEVERE CHARACTER...BUT NEWLY HATCHED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN POTENTIALLY VOLATILE...PARTICULARLY OWING TO THE BELT OF SWIFT WESTERLIES GUIDING THE CONVECTION AND BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS. DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING OVER SC AND IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS A THETA-E RIDGE WAS EXPANDING ALONG THE SC COAST. NO CHANGES TO THE SEVERE THREAT THIS UPDATE AS CONVECTIVE REGENERATION OR FORMATION REMAINS PLAUSIBLE OVER OUR AREA LATER TODAY...AND CONSIDERING THE FAST SEAWARD STORM MOTION. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. PRIMARY HEADLINE TODAY IS SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS POTENTIAL STORM CLUSTERS TRACK EAST AT A FORMIDABLE PACE ACROSS NE SC AND POSSIBLY VERY SE NC. DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR PARAMETERS IMPLY A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH STORM SPEED OF AROUND 40 KT WILL INTRODUCE A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. TIMING WISE STORM PASSAGE WINDOW WILL EXIST FROM 16Z-20Z/NOON-400 PM THEN ACROSS THE 0- 20 NM WATERS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NEXT FEATURE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NC...WITH POTENTIALLY A RESIDUAL MCS OR FAMILY OF MCV PERTURBATIONS SUSTAINING POST-FRONTAL RAINS OVER NC INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH PCPN AND SW WIND SHOULD BRING US INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY. MINIMUMS TONIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NC AS COOLING SINKS IN...AND MIDDLE 60S SC. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY BISECTING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING OFF INTO THE OFF SHORE WATERS WITH A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ABOVE THE SURFACE. WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SFC WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MORE STABLE COOLER AIR WILL BE PRESENT. TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR PRESENT AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA CLOUDIER WHILE MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WILL SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOKING AT MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDING DATA...SHALLOW MOISTURE LOCKED IN EARLY SUNDAY SHOULD BREAK UP AS MID CLOUDS MOVE IN. TRICKY FORECAST IN TERMS OF CLOUDS AND TEMPS AS FRONT SHOULD BISECT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARMER AIR AND MORE SUNSHINE TO THE SOUTH AND CLOUDIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO GET PUSHED SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN PUSHING COLD FRONT SOUTH. LATEST MODELS KEEP BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. EXPECT BEST CHC OF PCP AS FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PCP WATER VALUES ONLY REACHING JUST OVER AN INCH ALONG BOUNDARY BY SUN EVE AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. CAN NOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE HEAVIER SHOWER CLOSER TO THE SHORE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE COMBINES WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 80S SOUTH OF FRONT AND REMAIN CLOSER TO 70 NORTH OF THE FRONT. GFS REMAINS SLOWER TO DROP FRONT SOUTH AND THEREFORE IS MORE OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY WHILE THE NAM KEEPS CLOUDS AND BRINGS COOLER AIR SOUTH QUICKER LEAVING COOLER TEMPS OVER MUCH OF AREA EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION. ONCE FRONT DROPS SOUTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOLER AIR TO ADVECT IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 850 TEMPS DROP FROM 14C SUN MORNING DOWN TO 3 C BY MON NIGHT AS HEIGHTS LOWER AS DEEP TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. EXPECT TEMPS CLOSER TO 70 ON MONDAY AS SUNSHINE TRIES TO OFFSET THE CAA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...A DEEP N-NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON. BY TUES NIGHT INTO WED A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SPREADING CLOUDS AND PCP NORTH. BEST CHC OF PCP SHOULD COME WED IN INCREASED LIFT AND MOISTURE. THIS LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST ON THURS WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND PCP UNTIL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...LEAVING SUNNY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMER AND MOISTER AIR MASS RETURNING ON THURS AS AN ON SHORE FLOW MAY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS LOW MOVES SOUTH OF AREA. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...MOISTURE COLUMN WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY MIDDAY. EVEN WITH THE STEADY PRECIP...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. THIS AFTERNOON... A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT WILL TRAVEL ALONG OUR SOUTHERN CWA...WITH DECENT CONVECTION ALONG IT. LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS IN THE CONVECTION...BEST CHANCE ALONG THE MYRTLES. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PRETTY PESSIMISTIC. WILL REEVALUATE WITH THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ALONG WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 638 AM SATURDAY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE SC WATERS...AND MARINERS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE LOOKOUT TO RADAR SINCE POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY WEST TO EAST TOWARD THE COAST. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...SW-S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST 15 KT AND GUSTY TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE. NO ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME BUT AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT OR A BRIEF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. CLOUD TO SEA LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH STRONG TSTM GUSTS...AND AGAIN FAVORED OVER THE SC WATERS BUT STILL POSSIBLE AROUND CAPE FEAR. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...FRONT WILL BE BISECTING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. SW WINDS ON SOUTH SIDE OF FRONT WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NW AND NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATER IN THE DAY. THE LATEST WNA KEEPS SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH PEAK IN SEAS SUN AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. COULD SEE A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS UP THROUGH SUN NIGHT BUT OVERALL EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY....LEAVING SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT. WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE IN N-NW WINDS MON NIGHT WITH A MINOR SPIKE IN SEAS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY... NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE EAST BY TUES NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST FROM THE GULF COAST. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH TUES...WITH A SLIGHT ON SHORE PUSH BY TUES NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AROUND TO THE SE-S ON WED AS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST POSSIBLY PASSING DIRECTLY ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL RISE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE WED IN INCREASED ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY PUSH AS LOW MOVES BY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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