Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201704 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 104 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1 PM MONDAY...SPRINGTIME WARMUP UNDERWAY WITH READINGS IN THE 70S APPROACHING 80 PRESENTLY. DEBRIS CIRRUS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA APPEARS POISED TO IMPEDE INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING WHICH MAY PLAY A ROLE LATER IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. SPC AND CHS CHATS JUST RECENTLY INDICATED NO WATCH PLANNED WITH SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM TIME PERIOD. SPC WITH THE RECENT SWO DAY 1 OUTLOOK TRIMMED SLIGHT RISK AREAS INCLUDING NOW...ONLY OUR FAR NORTHERN SE NC TIER FOR LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. DYNAMICS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A DEVELOPING LINE OF TSTMS WHICH SE NC AND NE SC MAY CATCH THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF...BUT SLIGHTLY DRYISH AIR AND PRE-EXISTING CLOUD COVER COULD OFFSET THE STORM THREAT. LATEST TIMING OF CONVECTION FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS REMAINS 5-6 PM WEST OF I-95...EARLY EVENING FOR OUR INTERIOR CENTRAL SE NC AND NE SC ZONES...AND 9-11 PM ALONG THE COAST. MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT IF CELL DO POP.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LARGE VORTEX /CLOSED 500 MB LOW/ ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPIN NEARLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A WINTER-TYPE MID-LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS. FORTUNATELY...THE WELL BELOW NORMAL THICKNESSES REMAIN SHUNTED NORTH OF THIS AREA...WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED LOCALLY. THIS WILL CREATE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A BROAD SURFACE HIGH MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION TUE/WED. THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS OFFSHORE VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...CREATING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR TUE/WED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM...AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH WED WILL BE A BIT WARMER. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 50S TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR WED NIGHT MINS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT VERY DRY MID-LEVELS AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE PERIOD MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PREDOMINANTLY DRY FROPA THANKS TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THEREAFTER...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. A LOW PRESSURE DRIVEN BY A SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY INTO TIMING AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...BUT AT LEAST CHC POP IS WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY...AND NOTE THE GFS DEPICTS A VERY WET SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAN ON THE DRIER ECMWF...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS SYSTEM WILL DRY THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AND VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SW 10-15 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT...DECREASING THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE W AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL BE NW ALL TERMINALS 8-12 KT. LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOWERING. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS AT KFLO/KLBT AND VCSH FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE...AND AMEND AS NECESSARY BEFORE 22Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PLUS HIGH PRESSURE CREEPING EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WILL ADVANCE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE BEACHES LATE TONIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AROUND 15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE HELPS ADD A FEW KNOTS TO THE OVERALL BACKGROUND WIND FIELD. AS WINDS SUBSIDE INLAND TONIGHT A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WITH WINDS JUST 1000 FEET UP INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS. THE OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED ENOUGH NOW THAT SOME OF THIS WIND WILL MIX DOWN TONIGHT...MAINTAINING 15-20 KT AT THE OCEAN SURFACE UP UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 3-4 FEET...UP TO 5 FT VERY OUTER PORTION. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START TUESDAY LEAVES NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY W/NW THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH DECREASING SPEEDS. THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY SETTING UP RETURN FLOW WITH SW WINDS RISING TO 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE JUST INLAND OF THE WATERS TO FINISH THE PERIOD. HIGHEST SEAS OF 3-4 FT WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD...WITH NW WIND WAVES PREDOMINANT TUESDAY MORNING...AND SW CHOP MOST COMMON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN BETWEEN...1-3 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WEAK GRADIENT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER SLOWLY NEAR THE WATERS MUCH OF THURSDAY...SO WINDS WILL ONLY VERY GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SW AROUND 10 KTS EARLY...TO NW AROUND 10 KTS LATE...BEFORE GETTING A PUSH FROM THE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL INCREASE.THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN RELAXES FRIDAY CAUSING NW WINDS TO DROP TO AROUND 5 KTS MUCH OF THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGHEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY...REACHING 3-4 FT. OTHERWISE EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS MOST OF THE EXTENDED.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR MARINE...TRA/JDW

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