Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 210252 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1052 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WILL BECOME ISOLATED OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FRI AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...THICK CANOPY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAD LIMITED INSOLATION FROM REACHING THE SFC THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THIS HAS RESULTED WITH LESS SFC BASED INSTABILITY AVBL FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT 88D RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE LOCAL FA AND UPSTREAM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED TO NEARLY NOTHING. WITH THE ILM CWA WITHIN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET INTO THE PRE-DAWN TUE HRS...AND THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FA PRIOR TO DAWN...WILL BOTH PROVIDE THE DYNAMICS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SFC INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYS HEATING. WITH ALL THIS SAID...HAVE ONCE AGAIN RE-ALIGNED THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS AND SKY CONDITIONS. OVERALL...WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE FA....MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFP. HAVE TWEAKED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2 LOWER...WHICH WILL OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK TUE BASED ON HOW MUCH CAA OCCURS AFTER THE CFP DURING THE EARLY AM TUE HRS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GENERAL CYCLONIC PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH STRENGTHENS LATE IN THE PERIOD AND DROPS SOUTH WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. I DID MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NICE WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE EXPECTED HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES AS A COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED BY MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THIS HIGH BEGINS TO GET OVERRUN BY SOME WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION. RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION SOON THEREAFTER AS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE EXIT OF THIS FEATURE SOME DRIER AIR ONCE AGAIN MANAGES TO PUSH IN FROM POINTS NORTH BRINGING BACK A DRY FORECAST IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES A SOLID CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO BY BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS AND WILL THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A LARGE VEIL OF CIRRUS IS SITUATED OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH SOME MID CLOUDS AND VIRGA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHRA AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THRU 02-03Z TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE...AT KFLO AND KLBT THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE DWINDLING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND EVER-SO-SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST OF THE THESE TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A WEST AND NORTHWEST DIRECTION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...SOLID SCEC FOR ALL WATERS. BORDERLINE SCA MAINLY FOR SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING SW-W AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. THE HIER RANGE OF SPEEDS TO ESPECIALLY OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AWAY FROM THE FRICTIONAL AFFECTS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BASICALLY RUN 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT 4 TO 5 FT WITH A FEW POSSIBLE 6 FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS LATER TONIGHT...THE BETTER FETCH TO PRODUCE THE HIER SEAS...IN THIS CASE THE 6 FOOTERS...MAY BE REALIZED. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...RESULTING IN DOMINANT PERIODS OF 5 TO 6 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW EMANATING FROM A DEEP CYCLONE WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW THEN BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SPEEDS INCREASE AS WELL TO 10-15 KNOTS. INITIAL SEAS OF 2-4 FEET WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND TWO FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP AGAIN LATE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT ONLY VERY SLOWLY SAGS TO OUR SOUTH. WITH MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT A NORTHERLY COMPONENT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MATERIALIZE. NORTH WINDS WILL THEN LIKELY LAST INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ITS LENGTH WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHALL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT BUT THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY OF WIND DIRECTION BOTH THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THAT IS EASTERLY WINDS OVER NORTHERN WATERS WHILE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY VEER MORE TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SRP

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