Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 311748 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 148 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW: THE DAY HAS WARMED UP QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY WHILE RETAINING EXPECTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS FAINT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID- ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING. PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES LATE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE. THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW. WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA- SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 2 FT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND 20 KT WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT 10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW FIRE WEATHER...JDW

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