Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231427 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1027 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING A WET WEEKEND. DRY AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DID BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THAT ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED. OBS SHOW THAT DRYER AIR FOLLOWING FROPA IS RAPIDLY FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING BY A FEW MORE NOTCHES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE LOOPS. HAVE ALSO ZEROED OUT POPS WITH A DRY AND STABLE COLUMN COMING INTO PLACE. STEEP LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP US POP SOME CU DESPITE P/W VALUES WHICH WILL DROP BELOW THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING SHIFTING AND DIMINISHING LOW- LVL WINDS. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE BETWEEN FLEETING HIGH CLOUDS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE BASED ON UPSTREAM SATELLITE TENDENCIES. THIS COMBINED WITH PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND TRAJECTORIES THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD HELP UPLIFT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...PARTICULARLY IN THAT TRUE COOL AIR ADVECTION IS LAGGING TEMPORALLY...SLATED LATE TONIGHT. POTENTIALLY OUR MILDEST MAXIMUMS MAY UNFOLD NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE TRAVEL DISTANCE IS GREATEST. MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVERT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CIRRUS SOUTH OF SE NC/NE SC. PRE-DAWN COOL AIR ADVECTION AND CHIEFLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 43-48 NC ZONES FROM NW TO SE...AND 45-52 SC...FROM INLAND TO THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... A PLEASANT FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD KEEPING THE WINDS QUITE LIGHT BUT ALSO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO. SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOW LEVELS AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. SO WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL RISE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING THEY SHOULD THEN REALLY RAMP UP AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE THE MID LEVELS WILL BE MORE VORT-LADEN AND ASCENT MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS...SOMEWHERE. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND...SOME PROGS LIFTING IT TO OUR NORTH ALONG RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE OTHERS IMPLY LESS SO. DO NOT PLAN TO DEVIATE FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS AND ONLY FORECAST MINOR FINE TUNING OF WHERE HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALREADY OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY BUT TRAINING ENERGY ALOFT INDUCES ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THAT MAY KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR A GOOD PART OF SUNDAY. WE DRY OUT ON MONDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON DROPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW ON TUESDAY BUT THEY MAY BE ON THE RISE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE APPROACHES. THOUGH WEAK THIS FEATURE MAY TAP AMPLE GULF MOISTURE TO EVENTUALLY BRING A GOOD RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY IF THE PHASING DEPICTED IN THE ECWMF COMES TO PASS. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL GIVE US NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SOME TRANSITORY MID CLOUD THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD SCATTER IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. GOOD AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SKIES AND GOOD VISIBILITY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TONIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ALONG WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUN. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO CLEAR THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH LATEST UPDATE. OBS SHOW SEAS NOW IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH 10 TO 15 KT WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE ENVIRONMENT TO START THE DAY AFTER A NEAR FULL NIGHT OF BLUSTERY SSW-SW WINDS...BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY AS WINDS DIMINISH IN LIGHT OF A FRONTAL TRANSIT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS OF 4-5 FEET WILL DAMPEN TO 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. THE OUTER PORTION MAY HOLD 4 FT SEAS INTO EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON THE 0- 20 NM WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS TO SETTLE TO 2-3 FEET THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... WIND RAPIDLY BECOMES LIGHT ON FRIDAY DUE TO CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM POINTS WEST. THE OFFSHORE FLOW COMPONENT WILL BE RETAINED MEANING JUST A WIND WAVE WILL REMAIN AND IT TOO WILL BE ABATING. AS THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH FALLS COMPLETELY APART OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH BECOME JUST ABOUT MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO OUR WEST ON SATURDAY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY BENIGN SAVE FOR SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN RAIN. AS FOR WIND AND WAVE IT WILL BE LOW PRESSURE ONLY VERY SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST CONTROLLING LOCAL CONDITIONS. THE WEAKNESS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP THE MARINE CONDITIONS QUIET. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... ON SUNDAY A FRONT MAY STILL BE STALLED OVER PART OF THE AREA AS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ITS LENGTH WEST TO EAST. SAVE FOR PERHAPS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES THERE SHOULD BE A NW TO NRLY FLOW BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH COULD LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND A N OR NW WIND DOMINATES EVERYWHERE. NEITHER THE PREFRONTAL NOR THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME BRING VERY STRONG WINDS AND A GENERAL 2 TO 3 FT SEAS FCST WILL LIKELY APPLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...MBB/RAN LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB

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