Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171721 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 121 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN LATER SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED AS THE WEDGE CONFIGURATION CONTINUES TO RELAX UNDER THE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST PATTERN ALOFT. THE BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONE COMPLICATION. THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...IS SHOWING A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HESITANT TO GO ALL IN WITH THIS FEATURE AS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN NUMEROUS FALSE ALARMS VIA SIMILAR FEATURES. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS WITH THIS ONE HOWEVER AND ACTIVITY TO THE WEST GIVES IT MORE CREDENCE. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER INLAND WILL CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THIS PERIOD. THE ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE ILM CWA DURING SAT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND MAINLY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT TO A MINIMUM AND WILL ONLY INDICATE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA SAT NIGHT...AND FINALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUN THRU SUN NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT. A POTENT S/W MID-LEVEL TROF OR ONE COULD CALL IT A CLIPPER...WILL DIVE SE AND RACE ACROSS THE NE STATES SAT...AND OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BACKDOOR THE ILM CWA ON SUN FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THRU SUN NIGHT. POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IF ANY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CENTRAL U.S. CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND HOOK ONTO A S/W UPPER TROF DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE SUN. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL BECOME WELL TAPPED BY MID TO LATE SUN. A S/W MID- LEVEL TROF ROTATING THRU THE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY... WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OR POSSIBLY CATEGORICAL...BY AND DURING SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA. AS FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD...WILL GO WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WHICH IS BASICALLY 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS...AND 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A WELL AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF...WITH THE UPPER TROF N-S AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD. ITS ONLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHEN MODELS WANT TO FLATTEN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MODELS DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS BY THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR POPS...THE PCPN FROM SUN NIGHT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY MON BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH ACROSS THE ILM CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH IDLEST CHANCE POPS BEING ADVERTISED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TUE THRU MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD END UP FINALLY BEING A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT ACROSS THE ILM CWA. AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO NOT SEE ANY INFLUENCE OF COOL OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR MASSES AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH INLAND BY TAF TIME...WITH ONLY A VCSH MENTION ALONG THE COAST. INLAND LOOK FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...THEN DIMINISHING DIURNALLY. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KEPT VISIBILITY MVFR IN SHOWERS...BUT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CREEPING UP. SATURDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WED.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS THAT HAVE WARRANTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS WITH THE LATEST PACKAGE. WILL ISSUE A SCEC FOR THE SAME WATERS UNTIL 6 PM. I HAVE ALSO ISSUED A VERY BRIEF MWS TO ADDRESS LOW WATER LEVELS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL CONTINE TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET UNDER A VERY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY TO START OFF WITH A WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY AND DURING SAT NIGHT...A BACKDOOR CUP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE CUP...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH NE WINDS REACHING SCEC OR POSSIBLY SCA THRESHOLDS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. A COASTAL FRONT/TROF WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE SUN...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E THEN SE BY LATE SUN. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AND COULD SEE WINDS AGAIN REACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAPITALIZE ON A DECENT FETCH RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILDING FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...AND LIKELY REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COULD ARGUE THAT A SFC WARM FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ILM WATERS COME MONDAY MORNING. THUS THE STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AT REDUCED SPEEDS AS THE SFC PG RELAXES SOME. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE GRADIENT ROOTEDNESS AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE W-NW AS RIDGING FROM WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AFFECTS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. MODELS NOW INDICATE A SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER VEER THE WINDS TO THE NW-N. SCEC OR SCA THRESHOLDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...FADING QUICKLY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK DURING MONDAY...THAN WILL INDICATE A SUBSIDING TREND THERE- AFTER AS WINDS VEER TO EVENTUALLY AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY BY LATE TUE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...DL

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