Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 310530 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 130 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR THE COAST. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE. SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER... REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/8 SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...MRR/8 FIRE WEATHER...SRP

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