Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231030 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 630 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING A WET WEEKEND. DRY AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...TRIMMED SKY COVER BACK A FEW NOTCHES AND ADJUSTED EARLY MORNING WINDS SLIGHTLY...OTHERWISE NO APPRECIABLE REVISIONS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING SHIFTING AND DIMINISHING LOW- LVL WINDS. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE BETWEEN FLEETING HIGH CLOUDS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE BASED ON UPSTREAM SATELLITE TENDENCIES. THIS COMBINED WITH PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND TRAJECTORIES THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD HELP UPLIFT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...PARTICULARLY IN THAT TRUE COOL AIR ADVECTION IS LAGGING TEMPORALLY...SLATED LATE TONIGHT. POTENTIALLY OUR MILDEST MAXIMUMS MAY UNFOLD NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE TRAVEL DISTANCE IS GREATEST. MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVERT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CIRRUS SOUTH OF SE NC/NE SC. PRE-DAWN COOL AIR ADVECTION AND CHIEFLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 43-48 NC ZONES FROM NW TO SE...AND 45-52 SC...FROM INLAND TO THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... A PLEASANT FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD KEEPING THE WINDS QUITE LIGHT BUT ALSO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO. SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOW LEVELS AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. SO WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL RISE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING THEY SHOULD THEN REALLY RAMP UP AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE THE MID LEVELS WILL BE MORE VORT-LADEN AND ASCENT MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS...SOMEWHERE. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND...SOME PROGS LIFTING IT TO OUR NORTH ALONG RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE OTHERS IMPLY LESS SO. DO NOT PLAN TO DEVIATE FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS AND ONLY FORECAST MINOR FINE TUNING OF WHERE HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALREADY OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY BUT TRAINING ENERGY ALOFT INDUCES ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THAT MAY KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR A GOOD PART OF SUNDAY. WE DRY OUT ON MONDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON DROPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW ON TUESDAY BUT THEY MAY BE ON THE RISE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE APPROACHES. THOUGH WEAK THIS FEATURE MAY TAP AMPLE GULF MOISTURE TO EVENTUALLY BRING A GOOD RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY IF THE PHASING DEPICTED IN THE ECWMF COMES TO PASS. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. EXPECT DRY COLD FRONT TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AOB 10 KTS. WS020/24040KT WIND SHEAR THROUGH 12Z. SFC WINDS BECOMING NE AOB 8 KTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ALONG WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUN. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE ENVIRONMENT TO START THE DAY AFTER A NEAR FULL NIGHT OF BLUSTERY SSW-SW WINDS...BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY AS WINDS DIMINISH IN LIGHT OF A FRONTAL TRANSIT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS OF 4-5 FEET WILL DAMPEN TO 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. THE OUTER PORTION MAY HOLD 4 FT SEAS INTO EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON THE 0- 20 NM WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS TO SETTLE TO 2-3 FEET THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... WIND RAPIDLY BECOMES LIGHT ON FRIDAY DUE TO CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM POINTS WEST. THE OFFSHORE FLOW COMPONENT WILL BE RETAINED MEANING JUST A WIND WAVE WILL REMAIN AND IT TOO WILL BE ABATING. AS THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH FALLS COMPLETELY APART OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH BECOME JUST ABOUT MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO OUR WEST ON SATURDAY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY BENIGN SAVE FOR SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN RAIN. AS FOR WIND AND WAVE IT WILL BE LOW PRESSURE ONLY VERY SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST CONTROLLING LOCAL CONDITIONS. THE WEAKNESS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP THE MARINE CONDITIONS QUIET. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... ON SUNDAY A FRONT MAY STILL BE STALLED OVER PART OF THE AREA AS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ITS LENGTH WEST TO EAST. SAVE FOR PERHAPS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES THERE SHOULD BE A NW TO NRLY FLOW BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH COULD LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND A N OR NW WIND DOMINATES EVERYWHERE. NEITHER THE PREFRONTAL NOR THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME BRING VERY STRONG WINDS AND A GENERAL 2 TO 3 FT SEAS FCST WILL LIKELY APPLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL/8

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