Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241022 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 622 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WET WEATHER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 622 AM FRIDAY...COOL AND FAIR CONDITIONS TO KICK OFF THIS LAST FRIDAY OF THIS APRIL. NO CHANGES TO THE PRESENT FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE INITIAL NORTH SURGE HAS WORKED SOUTH ALONG OUR COASTS AND WINDS HAVE ALREADY LOST A LITTLE PUNCH AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR APRIL 24TH. WINDS TO MARKEDLY DIMINISH INTO AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA AND OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR THIS EVENING. SHREDS OF CIRRUS ARCING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE UPSTREAM WILL STEER INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS BY DEEP NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP. ENCROACHING AND THICKENING CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE GUIDED BY A BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLIES...WILL BRING AN ONSET OF PRECIPITATION JUST AFTER DAYBREAK FOR OUR ZONES WEST OF I-95. THIS REGIME WILL INDUCE AN ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE TREND LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER 7-9Z/3-5AM AS CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS TEAM. MINIMUMS REALIZED WELL BEFORE FIRST LIGHT...48-54 DEG FROM OUR SE NC INTERIOR TO THE COASTAL ZONES RESPECTIVELY...50-52 SC INTERIOR LOCALITIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MAKE A MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RUN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SAT MORNING. WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W-SW. FLOW AT H85 WILL BE MORE SW ALLOWING A MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP NEAR 1.3 INCHES BY SAT AFTN. A WEAK RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL PROVIDE A MORE W-NW FLOW INITIALLY SAT MORNING. ONCE THE RIDGE FLATTENS A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE IN ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT ENHANCING LIFT AND PROVIDING INCREASED CHC OF PCP THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO THE EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOOKING AT MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDING DATA IT LOOKS LIKE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE FROM H7 AND ABOVE THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SAT MORNING WITH MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND THEN INCREASED CHC OF PCP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING HEADING INTO SUNDAY. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER RUNNING RIGHT THROUGH ILM FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FARTHER EAST AND OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL DROP A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY OFF SHORE. OVERALL FORECAST FOR EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS DRIER WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE OFF SHORE BY SUN MORNING AND NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING MAINLY ACROSS NC LATER ON SUNDAY AS FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND BETTER CHC OF PCP LATE DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUN EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT OF AREA BY MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. HOW MUCH SUN WE GET ON SUNDAY WILL AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SUN AFTN. SHOULD SEE BEST CONVECTION AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FOCUSED ALONG LINGERING FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PCP WATER VALUES CLOSER TO AN INCH. OVERALL EXPECT A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY WITH BEST CHC OF PCP SAT AFTN AND AGAIN SUN AFTN AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THOUGH...WITH BEST CHC OF SUN EARLIER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO IN CLOUDS AND PCP ON SATURDAY BUT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY COULD PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE AREA...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO TUES. SHOULD PULL OFF ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR TUES ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST AND GULF COAST LOW MAY MAKE ENOUGH EASTWARD PROGRESS TO PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TUES AND CHC OF PCP BY EARLY WED. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS DEEP TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS ENCROACHING CIRRUS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 7-12 KT AND CLEAR MORNING SKIES. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY WITH FEW TO SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ALONG WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 622 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS ARE FLAPPING IN BLUSTER N-NNW WINDS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A SHORT-LIVED EVENT HOWEVER AS THE HIGH SINKS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND WINDS DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. ADVISORY TO RUN UNTIL MIDDAY ALL WATERS FOR 25 KT GUSTS. SEAS TO CREST AT 3-5 FEET...POSSIBLY 6 FEET OUTER PORTION LATE MORNING. IMPROVEMENT RAPIDLY IN SEAS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY REMAINS TIED TO LOCAL WINDS. NO TSTMS OR VISIBILITY PROBLEMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AS LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH MAKES ITS WAY BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY. OVERALL WEAK GRADIENT WITH MORE VARIABLE WINDS OR WEAK RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND SEAS DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH SAT AFTN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS LATER ON SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS. LOCAL WATERS SHOULD LIE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SOUTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MOVING OFF SHORE LEAVING SW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NW AND NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY. THE S-SW PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS UP CLOSER TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY SUN AFTN. COULD SEE A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS UP THROUGH SUN NIGHT BUT OVERALL EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH BY MONDAY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH DIMINISHING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE EAST BY TUES NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST FROM THE GULF COAST. EXPECT SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY MONDAY MORNING AND REMAINING BENIGN THROUGH TUES...WITH A SLIGHT ON SHORE PUSH BY TUES NIGHT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ

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