Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241800 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 200 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WET WEATHER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AS A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS COLD FROPA. AXIS OF ASSOCIATED RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM NNW TO SSE AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST WHILE REMAINING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL ON TRACK TO SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 60S. THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE COOL AND DRY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING BROKEN TO OVERCAST BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH READINGS INCREASING TOWARDS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...OR 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MAKE A MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RUN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SAT MORNING. WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W-SW. FLOW AT H85 WILL BE MORE SW ALLOWING A MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP NEAR 1.3 INCHES BY SAT AFTN. A WEAK RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL PROVIDE A MORE W-NW FLOW INITIALLY SAT MORNING. ONCE THE RIDGE FLATTENS A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE IN ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT ENHANCING LIFT AND PROVIDING INCREASED CHC OF PCP THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO THE EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOOKING AT MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDING DATA IT LOOKS LIKE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE FROM H7 AND ABOVE THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SAT MORNING WITH MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND THEN INCREASED CHC OF PCP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING HEADING INTO SUNDAY. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER RUNNING RIGHT THROUGH ILM FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FARTHER EAST AND OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL DROP A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY OFF SHORE. OVERALL FORECAST FOR EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS DRIER WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE OFF SHORE BY SUN MORNING AND NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING MAINLY ACROSS NC LATER ON SUNDAY AS FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND BETTER CHC OF PCP LATE DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUN EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT OF AREA BY MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. HOW MUCH SUN WE GET ON SUNDAY WILL AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SUN AFTN. SHOULD SEE BEST CONVECTION AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FOCUSED ALONG LINGERING FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PCP WATER VALUES CLOSER TO AN INCH. OVERALL EXPECT A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY WITH BEST CHC OF PCP SAT AFTN AND AGAIN SUN AFTN AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THOUGH...WITH BEST CHC OF SUN EARLIER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO IN CLOUDS AND PCP ON SATURDAY BUT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY COULD PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE AREA...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO TUES. SHOULD PULL OFF ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR TUES ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST AND GULF COAST LOW MAY MAKE ENOUGH EASTWARD PROGRESS TO PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TUES AND CHC OF PCP BY EARLY WED. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS DEEP TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO 10K FEET OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY MORNING. SATURDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF THE PRECIP IS AN ISSUE...SAFE TO SAY IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SURFACE. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ALONG WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...EXPECT BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 2 FT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AS LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH MAKES ITS WAY BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY. OVERALL WEAK GRADIENT WITH MORE VARIABLE WINDS OR WEAK RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND SEAS DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH SAT AFTN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS LATER ON SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS. LOCAL WATERS SHOULD LIE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SOUTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MOVING OFF SHORE LEAVING SW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NW AND NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY. THE S-SW PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS UP CLOSER TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY SUN AFTN. COULD SEE A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS UP THROUGH SUN NIGHT BUT OVERALL EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH BY MONDAY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH DIMINISHING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE EAST BY TUES NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST FROM THE GULF COAST. EXPECT SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY MONDAY MORNING AND REMAINING BENIGN THROUGH TUES...WITH A SLIGHT ON SHORE PUSH BY TUES NIGHT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99/DL MARINE...99/REK

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