Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 240031 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 831 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT WILL BRING A WET WEEKEND TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. DRY AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY MOVING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NW AND W WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AS THE COOL AIR MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. STRENGTHENING WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET THE INCOMING CHILLY AIR. THIN CIRRUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE THIS EVE. THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THUS...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP. ALTHOUGH COOLING WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY EFFICIENT DUE TO MIXING... LOWS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S MORE COMMON ALONG THE MOST IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 70 INLAND AND THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RAINY DAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE OLD COLD FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT AND AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING MID-MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING IN SATURDAY EVENING. A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TRANSECTING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY WITH CLEARING EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SUNDAY. A DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL DROP A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY OFF SHORE. MODELS DIFFER IN TERMS OF EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO W-NW ON BACK END OF LOW AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS SHOWS A DRY SLOT SUN MORNING WITH SW FLOW AND BROADER LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW A FASTER SOLUTION WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF SHORE EARLY SUNDAY LEAVING SW FLOW AND BREAK IN PCP FOR PART OF SUNDAY AND THEN SHORTWAVE PUSHES COLD FRONT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCP AGAIN. EITHER WAY PART OF SUNDAY MAY BE DRIER AND LESS CLOUDY. THE CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE WHICH PART. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO TUES. SHOULD PULL OFF ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR TUES ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST AND GULF COAST LOW MAY MAKE ENOUGH EASTWARD PROGRESS TO PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP AS EARLY AS LATE TUES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS DEEP TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FEW/SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING INCREASING TO AOB 10 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. ON FRIDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ALONG WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT THIS EVE TO 3 TO 5 FT WITH 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...AS THE COLD AIR SURGES...WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL START OUT AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEA HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 6 FT RANGE 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TIL NOON FRI. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SEAS DURING THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS. LOCAL WATERS SHOULD LIE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SOUTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MOVING OFF SHORE LEAVING SW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NW AND NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY. THE S-SW PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS UP CLOSER TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY SUN AFTN. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT THROUGH MONDAY. COULD SEE A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS UP THROUGH SUN NIGHT BUT OVERALL EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH DIMINISHING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE EAST BY TUES NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST FROM THE GULF COAST. EXPECT SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY MONDAY MORNING AND REMAINING BENIGN THROUGH TUES...WITH A SLIGHT ON SHORE PUSH BY TUES NIGHT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...DRH/RJD LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL

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