Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260826 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 426 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MID LEVEL FLOW FEATURES A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH ELONGATED TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING WEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. EMBEDDED S/W AND SFC LOW TO TRACK OFF TO THE SE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN TODAY. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND WIND OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FROST. TONIGHTS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S. MODELS SHOWING A S/W ROTATING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY AROUND LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS S/W IS WEAKENING AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST WITH BEST MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. SYSTEM TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 60 NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY TO EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE FORECAST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. BEYOND THAT THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH READINGS GETTING ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR CEILINGS AT CVG AND LUK WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. REST OF TAF SITES WILL SEE CONTINUED VFR...WITH CLOUDS EVENTUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AT ALL SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH...WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST WHEN SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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