Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181746 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 146 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. CIRRUS AND ALTOCUMULUS ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. FOR TODAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES FOLLOWED BY MORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND THICKEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. A FEW 80S MAY OCCUR IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL MOVE FROM THE COLORADO REGION TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING OUT OF COLORADO WILL HELP EJECT MID LEVEL ENERGY NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MS VLY TO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING MOIST...LOW LEVEL JET/WARM FRONT WHICH WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD PCPN INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AS FIRST. HOWEVER...AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY OCCUR AS INSTABILITY INCREASES A TAD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND A DEEPENING LOW TO OUR WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY BEFORE PCPN BEGINS AS SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY HELP TRANSFER STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACRS THE NORTH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL GET EJECTED/ABSORBED WITHIN LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE EMBEDDED MID LVL ENERGY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AS THEY MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION. WE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO OUR WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. OUR AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE DRY SECTOR OF THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. ANY LINGERING PCPN ACRS THE FAR EAST WILL MOVE AWAY EARLY MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ON TUESDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. WITH DEEP MIXING...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY DAY WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTH. WIND GUSTY MAY RANGE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GENERALLY USED A MOS CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE AND ALONG THIS FEATURE. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TO THE EAST BY MONDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF THE FA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DISTURBANCES WILL WORK AROUND THIS LOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE FA HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY AND HAVE INTRODUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE FA ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES SATURATED UNDER PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT CVG LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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