Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 041808 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 208 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE SECOND AREA OF FOCUS IS AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH BOTH AFOREMENTIONED AREAS HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. EXPECT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TO STAY GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW THERE IS ALSO THE CONCERN FOR SOME ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL WITH THE HIGHER CONCERN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING EXPECT THE RISE TO BE SLOWER...AND EVEN FALL FOR AWHILE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA...AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION INCREASES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS. OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WORK INTO KDAY FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF CU SE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BETTER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALONG A BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO LATE EVENING HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO MOVE NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...NOVAK

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