Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 182003 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 403 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO PULL EAST AND WASHOUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OHIO HAS ALREADY STARTED TO WEAKEN AND WASHOUT AS A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MICHIGAN/ OHIO STATE LINE SAGS SOUTH. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT QUICKLY PULLS EAST. ALSO... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CLEARLY SEEN ON IR AND VIS SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY GET DISLODGED AND PUSH EAST. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY START TO NUDGE THE LOW TOWARDS THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS CLOUDS WILL START TO QUICKLY THICKEN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY MORNING THAN THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY INCREASE AS WAVES OF PVA MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP AND AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS OHIO. HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A BROAD PRECIP SHIELD AHEAD OF THE WARM SECTOR ARRIVING INTO CINCINNATI AROUND 8 AM AND THEN EXPANDING TO COLUMBUS AROUND 2 PM. PWATS ON THE BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE FORECASTED TO REACH 1.65" BY SUNDAY AROUND NOON (NEARING 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). CAPE VALUES SUNDAY WILL BE VERY LOW BUT 0 - 3 KM SRH VALUES ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE. SRH VALUES ARE IN THE 400 TO 600 M2 /S2 RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS OF NOW EXPECTING PRECIP SHIELD TO BE MOSTLY WAA DRIVEN INITIALLY WITH STORMS NOT BEING ABLE TO FULLY UTILIZE SUCH HIGH LOW LEVEL SRH VALUES. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEFORE THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHEAR OUT AND MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/ EARLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS CAPE VALUES COME UP A BIT. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT DISLODGED THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO OCCLUDE AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE EURO PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY QUICKER. GIVEN THE OCCLUSION PROCESS OF THE LOW ONGOING AT THE TIME HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN LESSEN TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS 850 MB WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO BE CONSISTENTLY AROUND 40 KTS. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO AN ELEVATED PRESSURE GRADIENT THOUGH THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUING TO EXHIBIT AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO DOMINATING THE EARLY/MID EXTENDED PERIOD KEEPING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS IN ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN FCST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL COME WHEN THE SFC HIGH IN THE SE UNITED STATES MOVES OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS FOR AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AND LINGER JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT. THE UPR LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ENOUGH TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON FCST AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST IN THAT THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGING IT INTO THE TN AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY THE DEPARTING UPR LOW. HAVE COMPROMISED WITH CHANCE OF PRECIP IN ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF FCST AREA. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES SATURATED UNDER PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT CVG LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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