Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271325 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 925 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO TODAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA...PROVIDING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WITH EAST-WEST ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROF EXTENDING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A PAIR OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO PIVOT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROF DROPPING SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INITIAL S/W DROPPING SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SECOND S/W OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO DROP SOUTH THRU EASTERN OHIO THIS AFTN. AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING IN CLEVELAND`S AREA. KILN 12Z SOUNDING AGAIN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. 850 MB TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND ONE DEGREE C WITH SOME WEAK CAA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY MIGHT HOLD DOWN TEMPS A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX T GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND SPRAWLING LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THIS AFTN/S S/W EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS MAINLY THIS EVENING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE MAINLY ACRS THE FAR EAST IN PROTECTED AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NE TO THE UPPER 30S SW. IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME...NRN RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER TUESDAY AS SRN SYSTEM MOVES INTO LOWER MS VLY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. SRN SYSTEM TO SLIDE EAST THRU THE TN VLY WITH SFC LOW ALONG THE GULF STATES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ANY MENTION OF PCPN TO SLIGHT CHC POPS IN FAR SE WED AFTN. CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL MILDER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 40 NE TO THE MID 40S SW. HIGHS ON WED WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL OPEN UP AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT TO BECOME A LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. OVERALL THERE IS WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. BUT AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR CMH AND LCK BUT KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE ANY PRECIP. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. CVG WILL SEE VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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