Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200541 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 141 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL PIVOT FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER SE CANADA AND THE NE U.S. AND A TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. EMBEDDED S/W IN THE FLOW TO EJECT NE TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TO DEEPEN AND PIVOT INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF WARM FRONT HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF ILN/S FA. MARGINAL INSTBY HAS PUSHED NORTH ACRS NRN KY AND FAR SRN SW OHIO THIS EVENING IN WARM SECTOR. AXIS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NE TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLD AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE BETTER UPDRAFTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT THIS EVENING BRINGING A WEDGE OF POSITIVE VORTICITY TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS IN GENERAL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS BUT ARE UNSURE OF WHERE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE/ REMNANT LOW WILL BE. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR US? THE GFS TRACKS THE SHORTWAVE THE FARTHEST NORTH AND WEST AND THEREFORE TRACKS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE CMC IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM FURTHEST SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE THAT DISLODGED THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL THEN BEGIN TO MATURE AND OCCLUDE MONDAY AND DRIFT SOUTH OVER WISCONSIN. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THE SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON DO SHOW SOME CAPE BUT MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE QUICKLY FALLING (PWATS UNDER AN INCH MONDAY AFTERNOON). FOR NOW HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS IN WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. MONDAY AFTERNOON ALSO AGAIN LOOKS TO BE BREEZY WITH THE LLJ INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KTS. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AS STRONG CAA SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AROUND 40 DEGREES TUESDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... COOL AND RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THOUGH MOSTLY IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW. FOR TUESDAY...DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN FROM THE RIDGE IN THE FAR EASTERN US AND THE UPR LOW STRENGTHENING...INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THE RESULT IS STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL POSSIBLE. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SKIRT ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN FCST AREA BELOW THE DOMINATING UPR LOW ON TUESDAY. SO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS A RESULT. NAM/GFS HAVE THIS FEATURE...00Z ECMWF DIDN`T PICK UP ON IT...THOUGH 12Z ECMWF NOW SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN VERY COOL AND DRY FOR THU/FRI BEFORE THE UPR LOW FINALLY LIFTS JUST ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR A MORE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV TO AGAIN BRING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN FCST AREA. CONTINUED THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TREND WITH THE UPR LOW DOMINATING THE NORTHERN AREA AND GENERAL NW FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR MID/UPR 30S FOR LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND LOW/MID 30S THURS NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA RIGHT NOW...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH MORNING...WITH A FEW BREAKS TO VFR POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z...WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THICKER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH RAIN IN THE VICINITY. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THESE WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND BRIEF...AND ARE COVERED WITH A VCSH IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE WSW AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY EVENING...AS CLOUDS BREAK TO VFR AROUND THE SAME TIME. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...HATZOS

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