Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 060202 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1002 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING THE OHIO VALLEY TO REMAIN IN A WARM AIR MASS. WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GRADUALLY INCREASING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH THE NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH FORECAST LOWS LOOKING REASONABLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY. GFS/NAM PROJECTIONS ARE INDICATING THAT 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM BY ABOUT A DEGREE CELSIUS OVER THE REGION...AND THUS MAX TEMPS ARE BEING FORECAST ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO FAHRENHEIT WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UNDER RIDGING ALOFT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN LOOK TO BE SPOTTY AT BEST FOR WEDNESDAY. TO BE HONEST...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NOT ZERO FOR ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUILDING EVERYWHERE (AND WEAK CAPPING AT MOST). FORCING AGAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR...KEEPING AWAY ANY EXPECTATION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. 12Z NAM/GFS PROJECTIONS SHOW AN INCREASED CHANCE OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHWARD-MOVING FRONT (PRIMARY OVER THE NWS CLE FORECAST AREA) AND ALONG A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE ILN CWA ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY...AND A 20-POP WILL ONLY BE INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD LOW TEMPS AROUND 60 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND END WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FEW HIGH BASED CUMULUS COULD PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED FOG AT KLUK WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO AT LEAST IFR. ELSEWHERE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...

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