Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 031802 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 202 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME MID CLOUDS TO THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR JUST SW OF THE FA HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM A MID DECK AND WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT THEN STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PCPN CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT WITH MORE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MID CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL BE MOST PREVALENT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY BELIEVE GUSTS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. DID ADD IN WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED IN SOME MVFR FOG TO KLUK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IT MIGHT BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...NOVAK

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