Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171319 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 919 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE AREA BUT WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME LINGERING PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WHITEWATER VALLEY OF INDIANA. AS A RESULT...WILL LEAVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UP THERE UNTIL EXPIRATION TIME. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. 12Z ILN SOUNDING IS SUPPORTING A HIGH OF AROUND 72 DEGREES AT ILN SO GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN USED FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM PERIOD FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN USED AS THE NAM WAS TOO DEEP WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON SATURDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO OUR NORTH...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BECOME MORE PHASED AND AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOSED MID LVL CIRCULATION MOVING EAST OUT OF THE COLORADO REGION WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL FORCE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. A DEVELOPING MOIST LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD PCPN FROM SW TO NE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE JUST SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME BETTER INSTABILITY ARRIVING BEHIND WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN CLOUDY CONDITIONS...RAIN...BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE LEANED WITH THE ECMWF TEMPERATURES WHICH YIELD HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...DEEPENING LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY NIGHT...PCPN WILL EXIT EAST AS A DRY SLOT WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF THE FA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA. THERE IS NOT A CLEAR DISTINCT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE FA AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE TAF SITES...AND THE 1500-3000 FOOT CLOUDS ARE LARGELY PUSHING EAST OF THE AIRPORTS AS WELL. AN AREA OF FOG (WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY DENSE) HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM INDIANA...BUT IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME BEFORE SUNRISE LIKELY HALTS ITS PROGRESS. THIS FOG APPEARS VERY LIKELY TO REACH DAYTON...AND LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PUT IN THE FORECAST FOR TWO HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE SITUATION IS LESS CERTAIN FOR CINCINNATI...WHERE THE FOG MAY APPROACH...BUT WITH LESS CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE AIRPORT. THE FOG IS UNLIKELY TO REACH COLUMBUS...WHERE ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. LUNKEN AIRPORT HAS DEVELOPED ITS OWN FOG...WHICH WILL LIKELY VARY BETWEEN 1/4SM AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. BY 14Z-15Z...THE FOG IS LIKELY TO LIFT OR DISSIPATE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NNW...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST SIGNS DO NOT POINT TOWARD A DENSE FOG EVENT. THIS WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE...EXCEPT FOR KLUK (WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST). OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058- 059.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HATZOS

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