Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 022011 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 411 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY UNTIL A FRONT DRAPES ITSELF WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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FAIR WX CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING SUN. MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE FOUND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AS IT BUTTS INTO A WEAKLY ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND THE TWO CANCEL EACH OTHER OUT TO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN JUST A LITTLE MORE DAYTIME FAIR WX CUMULUS IN THE REGION SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE WEAK COLD OR NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL DRAPE OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AND MORESO BEYOND THEN. UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT SOME SOUTHERN PERTUBATIONS OF THE SHOWERS NECESSITATE INCLUSION SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY OVERNIGHT BUT NOT REALLY REACHING THE OHIO RIVER.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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PERIOD BEGINS WITH FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN OHIO NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR THE FA. ZONAL H5 FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR CONVECTION. 12Z MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH A LITTLE ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC BY THE OHIO RIVER. THE CONVECTION COULD TRY AND WORK SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT...BUT STILL KEPT NRN KY DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT SOME SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP TODAY HOWEVER DUE TO THE LIGHT AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...NOVAK

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