Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260024 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 824 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE FA THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH JUST LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. MOST OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA DO NOT BELIEVE FROST WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AND THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... WITH CAA ONLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR SUNDAY. ALSO WITH CAA AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THIS WENT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT FROST MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY TO EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE FORECAST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. BEYOND THAT THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH READINGS GETTING ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY IN AN AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY. CIGS ACROSS OUR AREA OUR RANGING FROM VFR IN THEN NORTH TO IFR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL THE LOW PUSHES EAST AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING BEGINS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CIGS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT THE TAF SITES. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN VFR CU DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL

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