Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 051343 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 943 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE A LITTLE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY START TO WASH OUT AND PULL A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME... WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LATEST HIGH RES OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWFA WILL LIFT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN TURN SHIFT THE THREAT FOR ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH. HAVE HELD ON TO A LOW CHC POP ACRS THE FAR NORTH AND HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. REGION SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/HEATING WILL RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A FEW 84 OR 85 DEGREE VALUES IN THE NORMALLY VALLEY LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE AREA. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT THE AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND PWATS DON`T COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH ALSO A HINT OF UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. EITHER WAY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FORM WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IN THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. ON THURSDAY THE AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. THE LOW WILL THEN RETROGRADE UNDERNEATH THE WEAK RIDGE FORMING A TEMPORARY REX BLOCK WHICH WILL HELP TO BLOCK THE FLOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO DIVE SOUTH THURSDAY OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES QUICKLY WRAPPING UP INTO A LOW. THIS MEANS A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 FOR THE AREA OPENING THE WAY FOR POCKETS OF PVA TO TRAVERSE THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO RISE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND APPROACH 1.70" SUNDAY EVENING (1 - 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY EARLIER DUE TO THE LIFT AND MOISTURE. ON SUNDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EURO BRINGS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWARDS SUNDAY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES PICKING UP THE LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE LOW THEN PUSHES EAST ACROSS OHIO TUESDAY PULLING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE ENERGY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES NEVER MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DISLODGE THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND SHEARS OUT. THIS SOLUTION KEEPS THE AREA WARM AND HUMID. THE LATEST CANADIAN APPEARS TO RESEMBLE THE ECMWF. HAVE KEPT GRIDS TRENDING TOWARDS THE CMC AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR ARE CONTINUING TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT IT APPEARS THIS WILL REMAIN WEST/NORTH OF KDAY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...WITH ABOUT HALF OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGESTING IT WILL BE AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OHIO. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...THINK THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT IS TO ALLOW FOR A VCTS AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AND/OR SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES/HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...JGL

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