Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 031027 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 627 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT THEN STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PCPN CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT WITH MORE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT BE A TAD STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. VWP SHOWING WINDS AT 20 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED WINDS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME TAF SITES WILL ALSO BE A TAD GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MIX THROUGH THE LOWEST 200 MB. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...HAINES

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