Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 160614 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 214 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HAVE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. LATEST ILN SOUNDING SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 750 MB. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE RAIN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THURSDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AS CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND WAA BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL WORK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE A WEAK LOW WILL LIFT JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH. UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MUDDLED SIGNALS WHETHER ONE LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO ANOTHER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SO DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER THERE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL NARROW UP THE TEMPERATURE RANGE. SO HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY HIGHS BUT WENT CLOSE TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS. BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DRIER AIR MASS WITH RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR WARMER READINGS THAN THURSDAY. OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO CONSERVATIVE GFS MOS TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS. COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH A DECENT RANGE BETWEEN LOWS IN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM. WHERE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING TO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LULL OR DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE FA. MODELS TRY TO BRING IN SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY NORTH DURING THIS TIME. DECIDED NOT TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME UNTIL A STRONGER PRECIPITATION SIGNAL BECOMES EVIDENT. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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BETTER LIFT REMAINS OVER INDIANA IN VICINITY OF S/W TROF AND H5 PVA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN OVER INDIANA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. TOWARDS 12Z...TROF AXIS BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE WRN TAFS. MODELS LOWER CIGS QUICKLY TO IFR...PULLING MOISTURE IN FROM ERN KY WHERE THERE ARE ALREADY IFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN REPONSE TO THE LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING TROF. THE LIFT WEAKENS QUICKLY BY MID MORNING...CAUSING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO MVFR. BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL LIFT DEVELOPS...CAUSING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE SW TAFS. THIS PCPN TRIES TO WORK NE ACROSS THE TAFS BUT WEAKENS AS THE H5 S/W EJECTS OUT. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...SITES

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