Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 170218 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1018 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE I-71 CORRIDOR HAS ALLOWED RAIN TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THEY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE CLEARING LINE ALSO LOOKS TO TAKE ITS TIME GETTING HERE SO HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS BY A BIT. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF FOG TO THE GRIDS AS SOME SITES ARE ALREADY SHOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF LESS THAN 1 DEGREE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY THERE IS A CONCERN THAT FOG COULD GET DENSE IN SOME AREAS (ESP. TO THE WEST WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE CLEAR). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE CLOUDS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SHOWERS WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOS OFFERING REASONABLE NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND IN BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THIS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LULL OR A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF THE FA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA. THERE IS NOT A CLEAR DISTINCT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE FA AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME CELLS PRODUCING THUNDER HAVE FORMED THIS EVENING AS DAY TIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE A BIT. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AS WELL. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS COMING TO A QUICK END AT DAYTON THIS EVENING WHILE LINGERING A BIT LONGER TOWARDS KCVG/ KLUK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW THE LOW LEVELS SATURATING QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW THIS. WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE KEPT WITH THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SKIES WILL THEN START TO CLEAR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND (PWATS FALLING TO 0.50"). OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HAINES

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