Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171003 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 603 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP/PUSH SLOWLY EAST INTO OUR WESTERN CWFA THROUGH SUNRISE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE BETWEEN 9 AM AND 10 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL IT PUSHES THROUGH. BIGGEST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BECOME DENSE. DENSE FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM. GIVEN RECENT RAIN SHOWERS AND CLEARING SKIES ACRS OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD SUNRISE...FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM HERE. WILL HAVE TO BE QUICK TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST FROM CENTRAL INDIANA. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AS SOME LINGERING CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN USED FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM PERIOD FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN USED AS THE NAM WAS TOO DEEP WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON SATURDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO OUR NORTH...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BECOME MORE PHASED AND AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOSED MID LVL CIRCULATION MOVING EAST OUT OF THE COLORADO REGION WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL FORCE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. A DEVELOPING MOIST LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD PCPN FROM SW TO NE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE JUST SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME BETTER INSTABILITY ARRIVING BEHIND WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN CLOUDY CONDITIONS...RAIN...BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE LEANED WITH THE ECMWF TEMPERATURES WHICH YIELD HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...DEEPENING LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY NIGHT...PCPN WILL EXIT EAST AS A DRY SLOT WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF THE FA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA. THERE IS NOT A CLEAR DISTINCT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE FA AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR...AND ARE SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE EAST. CLEARING SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE TAF SITES VERY GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS CLEARING IS THAT ONCE THE CLOUDS ARE GONE...CONDITIONS BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR FOG...PERHAPS OF THE DENSE VARIETY. THIS SEEMS VERY POSSIBLE TO OCCUR FOR DAYTON (AND MAYBE CINCINNATI)...THOUGH LESS SO FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES...WHERE CLEARING WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. LATER TODAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NNW...AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE AREA. VERY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>044-051>053-060-061-070. KY...NONE. IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058- 059-066-073-074.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HATZOS

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