Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250246 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1046 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OHIO. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY TONIGHT. NOT ALL OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY LIMITED AND THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING A BIG DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE EJECTING H5 S/W WEAKENS AS ITS GETS ABSORBED INTO THE OVERALL WLY FLOW. MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH IN TRACKING THE SFC LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO PULL UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY...KEEPING THE BETTER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR SATURDAY. WENT AHEAD AND WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FA...AS IT LOOKS LIKE ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS WILL SE SOME SORT OF PCPN ON SATURDAY. WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOY PASSING THE SFC LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS FROM THE FILLING S/W. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER POPS IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. H5 S/W TROF ROTATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER LOW SUNDAY WILL COMBINE WITH H8 CAA AND NLY WINDS TO DEVELOP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE THESE LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP MITIGATE THE CHANCE OF FROST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. AROUND THE OHIO RIVER THEY SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S...WITH PARTS OF OWEN COUNTY MAKING IT TO NEAR 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S IN NRN KY. ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. AS HINTED AT ABOVE...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE LOWER 40S IN NRN KY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... W-E ORIENTED H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUD COVER AND THE WEAK POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE. LEFT SPRINKLE MENTION OUT BEING DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST WITH THE THOUGHT THAT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF A MOIST LAYER BENEATH THE MID LEVEL FORCING TO WRING OUT ANY MORE THAN A THICKER CLOUD. THIS LEAVES MONDAY HIGH TEMPS AS THE COOLEST IN THE FORECAST...STARTING OUT AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOW 60S FOR KY AND AREAS ALONG OHIO RIVER. HIGH BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION BUT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE MUDDLED SURFACE PATTERN AND ONLY A WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND AS THE H5 PATTERN REALLY GETS KNOCKED AROUND WITH WEAK RIDGES IN BETWEEN VARIOUS TROUGHS AND CUTOFF LOWS DOWNSTREAM OF AN ENTRENCHED RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL PREVAIL AND HAMPER ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLES OF THIS TIME IN THE SEASON. INTERSPERSED PERIODS OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS ARE EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND AS TEMPS REACH AND SLIGHTLY EXCEED CLIMO NORMALS BY DAY 7 BY TIPPING INTO THE 70S. A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE MEAN H5 RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SHOWER FALLING FROM A MID DECK BEFORE MIDNIGHT HOWEVER EXPECT MOST OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED TO THE MVFR CATEGORY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER BELIEVE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS WILL BE MORE LIMITED AT KCVG AND KLUK AND THEREFORE LEFT OUT OF THOSE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BY AFTERNOON A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FROM SW TO NE BEFORE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF KCVG AND KLUK HOWEVER WITH THESE SITES BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY DECIDED TO INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION IN THE TAF FOR A PERIOD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...NOVAK

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