Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 042345 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 745 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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EVENING UPDATE GENERALLY BLENDED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO OBSERVED VALUES AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE LOWER TEMPS ALONG AND N OF I-70 WHERE SHOWERS HAD JUST PASSED THROUGH. UPSTREAM CONVECTION NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS IS WEAKENING AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL HOLD ANY CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF A GUSTY OUTFLOW THIS EVENING. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE H5 VORT THAT WILL MOVE QUICKER THAN THE STORM...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE NOTED OUTFLOW PUSHING S FROM THE SYSTEM THAT WILL INHIBIT A CONTINUED INFLUX OF RELATIVELY MOIST AND/OR UNSTABLE AIR. KEPT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNCHANGED WITH A HEIGHTENED AREA OF LIKELY POPS INCREASING ALONG I-70 FROM RICHMOND TO CMH AND THEN CONCENTRATING MORE IN THE NORTHERN MIAMI VALLEY BY LATE EVENING AND SUBSEQUENTLY LIFTING NNE OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR /OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP. ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF. BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WORK INTO KDAY FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF CU SE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BETTER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALONG A BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO LATE EVENING HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO MOVE NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...

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