Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210245 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1045 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON WEST WINDS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED EAST OF ILN/S FA TODAY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WAS FILTERING IN ON WEST WINDS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VLY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SKIES WILL VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF CLOUDS EXPECTED ACRS THE NORTH. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD CAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO LOWS FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST NORTH OF MICHIGAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE TIGHT TOMORROW WITH A POTENT LLJ OVERHEAD. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING 800 MB WINDS APPROACHING 50 KTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE ALSO SHOW MIXING UP TO AROUND 600 MB. IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS WILL SUPPORT WINDS SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WINDS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT PRODUCING SOME DEVELOPMENTAL PCPN ACROSS PARTS OUR AREA TOWARD THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND PERHAPS AN AXIS OF 850-700 MB DEFORMATION THAT TRIES TO SET UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH WITH THIS THOUGH SO WILL LIMIT ANY PCPN MENTION TO JUST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. WEAK CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S. AS OF TODAY...WE HAVE INITIATED OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FA...AND FROST ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS AT LEAST PART OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHTS. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED UP TOWARD OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. WHILE THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...SOME PCPN COULD SNEAK UP INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT MODIFICATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPR MS VLY TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE TAF FCST PERIOD. IN WAKE OF SFC FRONT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP BKN TO SCT VFR CLOUDS BETWEEN 5000 AND 9000 FEET ACRS THE TAF SITES. WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 28 KNOTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW AND INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 36 KTS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>056-060>062. KY...NONE. IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ050. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...AR

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