Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 051959 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 359 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING THE OHIO VALLEY TO REMAIN IN A WARM AIR MASS. WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GRADUALLY INCREASING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY EVIDENT ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...STRETCHING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN THE 70S AND 80S TO THE SOUTH. THE ENTIRE ILN FORECAST AREA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH JUST BARELY. DESPITE TEMPERATURES WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER LIMITED. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONFIRM WHAT WAS SUSPECTED BASED ON THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING...WITH A REGIME OF WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY WARM AIR BETWEEN 5KFT-10KFT. SOME SURFACE MOISTURE HAS POOLED CLOSE TO THE FRONT (WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S)...LEADING TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY (UP TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE) THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH NO SIGNS OF FOCUSED FORCING (AND THE FRONT STILL BARELY MOVING)...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY LARGE. HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS WILL BE SCATTERED...AND MAINLY TO THE NORTH (IN THE IWX/CLE FORECAST AREAS). MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY...WITH A WARMER STARTING POINT AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A DRY FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY. GFS/NAM PROJECTIONS ARE INDICATING THAT 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM BY ABOUT A DEGREE CELSIUS OVER THE REGION...AND THUS MAX TEMPS ARE BEING FORECAST ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO FAHRENHEIT WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UNDER RIDGING ALOFT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN LOOK TO BE SPOTTY AT BEST FOR WEDNESDAY. TO BE HONEST...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NOT ZERO FOR ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUILDING EVERYWHERE (AND WEAK CAPPING AT MOST). FORCING AGAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR...KEEPING AWAY ANY EXPECTATION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. 12Z NAM/GFS PROJECTIONS SHOW AN INCREASED CHANCE OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHWARD-MOVING FRONT (PRIMARY OVER THE NWS CLE FORECAST AREA) AND ALONG A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE ILN CWA ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY...AND A 20-POP WILL ONLY BE INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD LOW TEMPS AROUND 60 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND END WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...KEEPING PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME MIST DEVELOPMENT AT KLUK AND KILN WHERE MVFR AND/OR IFR VISIBILITES HAVE BEEN PLACED UNTIL THE MIST BURNS OFF BY 13Z. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY THREAT OF A DIURNAL POP UP SHOWER OR STORM IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY APPEARS SMALL AND HAVE LEFT TAF DRY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HICKMAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.