Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 040748 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 348 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IN CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPES IN THE 500 TO POSSIBLY 1000 J/KG RANGE DEVELOPING...WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST CAPES JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SAGGING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLE OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS IS TO BRING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DOWN TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER. AS A RESULT...WILL INCLUDE A 20 POP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH...INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY UP ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE TODAY...BUT THERE IS A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN BOTH THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM SHEAR FIELDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF SOME BETTER UPDRAFTS CAN GET GOING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT LIKELY BEING SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS. OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SOME FOG AGAIN AT KLUK. WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE TONIGHT AND THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS ALSO HIGHER CURRENTLY THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. STILL CANT RULE OUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES THOUGH. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MODELS WERE SHOWING RAINING REMAINING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. ON THE LATEST SET OF MODEL RUNS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING IT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS APPEARS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH ONLY TO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM DO SUPPORT THUNDER THOUGH. WILL WAIT FOR NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT BEFORE INTRODUCING THUNDER AND/ OR RAIN TO THE TAF SITES. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...HAINES

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