Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 011735 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 135 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... H5 LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS IN THE EXTREME SE COUNTIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. LINGERING COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW SOME CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. BACKED OFF ON THE OVERALL AMOUNT...BUT STILL THINK THEY WILL FORM. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S STILL LOOK GOOD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE FAIRLY LIMITED ABOVE ABOUT 850 MB...WILL KEEP MENTION OF PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S WARMING TO THE MID 70S FOR SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SET UP WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASINGLY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY RISE ABOVE NORMAL...PEAKING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (AND THE FIRST 80-DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT CVG WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE). MIN TEMPS WILL RESPOND SIMILARLY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AND EVENTUALLY ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE IN A LATITUDINAL SENSE...WITH FLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REMAINING CLOSE TO ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF MODEL RUNS DOES ALLOW FOR THIS CONVERGENT ZONE TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK (COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY)...SO POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SIGNS OF FORCING OVER THE ILN CWA...THE INCREASING HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL MEAN THAT A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST MAY NOT END UP AS THE BEST OPTION ANYWAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS (EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES). TO NO SURPRISE...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH STABILITY IN THE RIDGING SOLUTION SHOWN IN GFSE SPREADS AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PROJECTIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING APPEARS VERY SLOW. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS EXPECTED...DIURNAL CI IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. ANY CIG THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CU WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING SOME SCT CI TO THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR AT KUK OR ILN...SO ADDED A TEMPO MVFR VSBY FROM 08-11Z. ADDITIONAL CI WILL REACH THE FA AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...WITH SOME SCT CU DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR HOWEVER. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...SITES

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