Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 150819 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 419 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TO THE REGION FOR ANOTHER DAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL NOSE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO ON THURSDAY AND BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...MARKING AN END TO THE THREAT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION FOR A TIME. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE BUT APPEARS TO HAVE A THINNER COMPONENT TO THE NORTH AND WEST THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. IF CLOUD COVER IS THICKER THEN TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE DROPPED A FEW DEGREES BUT ANY SUN THROUGH THIN CI SHOULD LET TEMPS RISE TO AT LEAST THE MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE FOUND IN THE OHIO VALLEY. AN INVERTED TROUGH RUNNING NORTHEAST INTO OHIO ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE TO POOL ALONG IT. A WEAK H5 S/W AND VORT MAX WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND HELP INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO OCCUR. DID NOT BELIEVE THAT THE MODELS SCATTERED NATURE OF THE QPF FIELDS WARRANTED LIKELY POPS SO KEPT THE RAIN THREAT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND MARK THE BACK EDGE TO ANY SHOWER/PRECIP THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO BE SEASONABLY MILD IN THE 50S. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WITH BORDERLINE CHANCE POPS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY PERIOD FROM SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE AT ITS SOURCE IN THE GULF...WHERE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDER CHANCES WERE GENERALLY KEPT TO DIURNAL TIMING...WITH INSTABILITY GENERALLY APPEARING TO REMAIN WEAK. THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN SUPPORTS A LONGER PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS ALWAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH COULD CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY OR SO INTO THE NEW WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSITION EWD TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO THE SE. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO A MID DECK ACROSS THE WRN TAFS AFT 12Z. CIGS IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS H8 MOISTURE INCREASES. A COUPLE OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN TAFS ALONG AN INVERTED TROF. FEEL THE CHANCE IS LOW ENUF TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST OVER 20 KTS AFTER 14-15Z. THE GUSTS SHOULD TAPER DOWN WITH SUNSET. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SEEMS TO PULL THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT N ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT. LEFT CIGS VFR FOR NOW WITH A MENTION OF A VCSH IN THE CVG 30 HOUR TAF. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...SITES

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