Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 040532 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 132 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WEST OF THE REGION WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR. FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE REGION IN NORTHEAST CANADA AND MOVING AWAY. THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR ON SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FRONT INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD POP ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER IN THE IMMEDIATE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HERE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD COVER THAT SHOULD BE MORE DENSE AND IN GREATER EXTENT IN NORTHERN CWA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD A BIT EACH DAY AS THEY RISE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...HIGHEST ALONG OHIO RIVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TO THE NORTH. DID NOT MAKE ANY SWEEPING CHANGES TO TEMPS IN THE FORECAST AS BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE OF THE MAV AND THE MET BLENDED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST YIELDED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FA. ON WEDNESDAY THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD. THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS. OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SOME FOG AGAIN AT KLUK. WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE TONIGHT AND THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS ALSO HIGHER CURRENTLY THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. STILL CANT RULE OUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES THOUGH. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MODELS WERE SHOWING RAINING REMAINING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. ON THE LATEST SET OF MODEL RUNS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING IT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS APPEARS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH ONLY TO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM DO SUPPORT THUNDER THOUGH. WILL WAIT FOR NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT BEFORE INTRODUCING THUNDER AND/ OR RAIN TO THE TAF SITES. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...HAINES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.