Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 022011
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
411 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY UNTIL A FRONT
DRAPES ITSELF WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WX CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING SUN. MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE FOUND
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AS
IT BUTTS INTO A WEAKLY ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND THE TWO CANCEL EACH
OTHER OUT TO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN JUST A LITTLE MORE DAYTIME FAIR WX CUMULUS IN THE REGION
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE WEAK COLD OR NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL DRAPE OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AND MORESO BEYOND THEN. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BUT SOME SOUTHERN PERTUBATIONS OF THE SHOWERS
NECESSITATE INCLUSION SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT REALLY REACHING THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN OHIO NEAR THE NORTHERN
EDGE FOR THE FA. ZONAL H5 FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR CONVECTION. 12Z
MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC BY THE OHIO RIVER. THE
CONVECTION COULD TRY AND WORK SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONT...BUT STILL KEPT NRN KY DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE FRONT
NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT SOME SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP TODAY
HOWEVER DUE TO THE LIGHT AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. CU WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK





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