Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261611 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1211 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID LEVEL FLOW FEATURES A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH ELONGATED TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING WEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. EMBEDDED S/W AND SFC LOW TO TRACK OFF TO THE SE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN TODAY. RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA LEAVING CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW A BROKEN SKY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS SOUNDING HAS A FEW CU FORMING. THINK THE TRUTH WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE... PARTLY CLOUDY. 12Z SOUNDING FROM KILN THIS MORNING SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S WITH WEAK CAA OCCURRING AT 850 MB. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A TAD ACROSS SOME AREAS BUT CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND WIND OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FROST. TONIGHTS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S. MODELS SHOWING A S/W ROTATING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY AROUND LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS S/W IS WEAKENING AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST WITH BEST MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. SYSTEM TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 60 NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY TO EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE FORECAST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. BEYOND THAT THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH READINGS GETTING ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE ISSUANCE. HIGH PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO EDGE IN TODAY ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING A RETURN OF VFR CLOUDS. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH RES MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TOWARDS CMH/ LCK IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY SHOWING A VERY THIN LAYER OF SATURATION AROUND 850 MB. DUE TO THIS HAVE LEFT MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AS CHANCE SEEMS LOW. OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...HAINES

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