Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 050529 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 129 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SHOWERS AND SOME REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LIKELY TO FILL IN BEHIND INITIAL ECHOES. TOWARDS DAYBREAK THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTHEAST. APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR /OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP. ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF. BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CURRENT PCPN TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND THUS ONLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS. CIGS/VSBYS ARE PRIMARILY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SOME PATCHY MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTHERN RIVER VALLEYS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...JGL

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