Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201752 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 152 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AN EMBEDDED S/WV IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MAIN BODY OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS SINCE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY OVER OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS CWFA. BELIEVE WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS IN A REGIME OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE AS CAA DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TOUGH GIVEN EARLY WARMTH AND THEN A GRADUAL DROP TO TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE CAA PATTERN. HAVE RANGED HIGHS FROM NEAR 60 WEST TO THE UPPER 60S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE NAM-WRF. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SEEMS PECULIAR WITH ITS BIG QPF BULLSEYES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE MOISTURE STARVED REGIME. WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER WILL BE THE WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH...COMBINED WITH DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING...WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT WOULD INDICATE THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY ACRS OUR NRN ZONES FOR TUESDAY. SINCE THIS IS THE OUTLIER ATTM...HAVE GONE WITH THE NAM WHICH KEEPS SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AND GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 RANGE. WE NEED SUSTAINED 27 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS FOR A WIND ADVISORY. BY LATE IN THE DAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A TONGUE OF MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE SRN ZONES. GIVEN DRY LOWER LEVELS...HAVE OPTED TO JUST MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A CONVERGENT CONFIGURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHC/CHC FOR SHOWERS ACRS THE SRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A VERY COOL AND DRY PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI BEFORE LARGE SCALE UPR LOW FINALLY LIFTS JUST ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR A MORE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV TO AGAIN BRING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN FCST AREA. CONTINUED THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TREND WITH THE UPR LOW DOMINATING THE NORTHERN AREA AND GENERAL NW FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR MID/UPR 30S FOR LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND LOW/MID 30S THURS NIGHT. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST OF TAF SITES...LEAVING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND STRONG WEST WINDS. SHOWERS WILL END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. RESIDUAL MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. FOR TUESDAY...VFR IS EXPECTED IN A REGIME OF LIMITED MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ARE PROJECTED IN THIS WINDY PATTERN. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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