Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 061049 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 649 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TODAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. THE 0 Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWED A STOUT CAP AT 700 MB WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. GIVEN THE STRONGER RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 700/850 TEMPS HAVE KEPT WITH THE DRY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ALSO LOOK TO BE A TAD WARMER THAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING WERE AROUND 12 DEGREES C WITH 850 TEMPS THIS MORNING FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 13.5 DEGREES. DUE TO THIS... HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S LOOKS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEDNESDAY EVENING AGAIN LOOKS MILD AS OHIO REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR. A COASTAL LOW THURSDAY MORNING WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA HELPING TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO. A WEAK REX BLOCK OVER THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRYING TO PINCH OFF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOW DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE RIDGE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS MEANS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS HAVE COME SLIGHTLY MORE INTO AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF FROM GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO MUDDLE THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO HEAD EAST. THE MAIN ISSUE MODELS TEND TO BE STRUGGLING WITH IS THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS CORRESPONDING MID LEVEL REFLECTION OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS BULGES THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER TOWARDS THE NORTH. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. HOW DOES THIS AFFECT OUR AREA? WITH A WEAKER RIDGE AXIS ON THE GFS THIS ALLOWS A FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AND STALL. THE EURO STALLS THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE GFS/ CMC SOLUTION IS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE STALLED FRONT WHILE THE EURO HAS BETTER FOCUS TOWARDS THE NORTH. EVENTUALLY THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES GETS PICKED UP IN BOTH THE GFS AND EURO AND BRINGS A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A GOOD SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH FRONT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN 1.6 TO 1.70" FORECASTED PWATS AND DECENT OMEGA VALUES. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN AREA OF STRATUS AND VLIFR FOG HAS BEEN SAGGING VERY SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THIS MORNING. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED SO THINK IT SHOULD STAY JUST NORTH OF KCMH THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR BR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE THROUGH MID MORNING. A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MVFR FOG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLUK. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034- 035-043>046-052-056. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...JGL

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